Last 30 days · 282 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 146–127
Every pick published, placed or not.15 picks · 7 hit · CLV +0.6 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
Real Valladolid CF at 1.95 decimal sits at 96% of fair (2.03) across two books and a 49.2% hit rate. The side won two of its last five matches while the opponent took zero of seven. Our record on La Liga 2 home play stands strong at 68% over 60 days.
Granada CF at 2.95 decimal trades at 95% of fair (3.12) across two books with a 32% hit rate. Granada won its last match 3-2, though the book's price remains at or under fair. Our record in La Liga 2 away play shows caution at 43% over 60 days.
Fortaleza at 1.87 decimal sits at 95% of fair (1.98) with two books building the line and a 50.5% hit rate. The side won four consecutive matches and its last game 1-0, while the opponent took two of five. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Newcastle United at 2.2 decimal prices at 96% of fair (2.3) with two books in agreement and a 43.4% hit rate. Newcastle has won its last match 2-1 and held an expected goal differential edge of plus 0.33 over its last 10 league matches. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Lanus at 2.25 decimal sits just below fair at 2.26 across two books, priced at 99% of fair value. The pick qualifies on agreement between sources and a 44.2% hit rate, though Lanus won only three of its last five while the opponent managed one in one. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Famalicão at 1.87 decimal sits at 96% of fair (1.95) across two sources, with a 51.2% hit rate. The side won its last game 4-0, though the book's price remains at or under fair. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Universidad de Chile at 1.53 decimal trades at 98% of fair value (1.55) with two books in agreement and a 64.4% hit rate. The team won its last match 3-0, but the price is at or under fair. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Milwaukee's price of 2.2 sits 3% under fair value of 2.27 across four books, with a 44.1% hit rate. Pitcher Logan Henderson's 24.5% K-BB% over 371 batters faced backs the Brewers, though his 2.47 ERA runs notably hotter than his 3.30 xFIP.
New Jersey Devils moneyline at -130 is priced at 97 percent of fair value across three books, with a 55 percent hit rate implying a slight disadvantage of 2.6 percent EV. The Devils won their last game 4-1. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Ottawa Senators +1.5 at -208 matches fair value exactly across three books at 1.48, with 67.7 percent hit rate and 0.1 percent EV. The Senators covered 1.5 in their last game, winning 3-2. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Cruzeiro at 3.1 decimal prices at 97% of fair (3.21) with two sources agreeing and a 31.2% hit rate. Cruzeiro won five of seven recent matches and its last game 2-0, while the opponent has won zero of one. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Cleveland's moneyline at 2.42 sits 3.7% below fair value of 2.51, which four books agree on. The 39.8% hit rate implies modest upside, though our record on MLB road moneylines over 60 days stands at 44%, a meaningful caution on the spot.
Vegas Golden Knights moneyline at even money is priced at 97 percent of fair value across three books, with a 48.7 percent hit rate implying a 2.7 percent EV disadvantage. The Golden Knights won 5 of their last 6 games and won 2-1 most recently. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
The Rams moneyline at -175 prices to 63.8% implied probability against a 61.6% fair hit rate built from four books. FanDuel pays 97% of fair value, leaving minimal edge; the pick lands on slate because books align on the probability band. All quotes are over 30 minutes old.
Total Points Under 54.5 at -105 sits exactly at fair value of 1.95 decimal across three books, with a 51.2% hit rate implying nearly even odds. Both defenses allow identical pass EPA per dropback at -0.02 versus the league baseline of +0.05, supporting the under's modest probability edge. Buffalo's last game went over this total.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
Two independent clusters with a 27.8% hit rate and 53.1% EV, paying 153% of fair value, offering solid value relative to its true probability of hitting.
