Last 30 days · 282 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 146–127
Every pick published, placed or not.15 picks · 8 hit · CLV +0.9 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
Qingdao West Coast FC at 2.35 prices at fair 2.39, paying 98% of fair value. The line has moved 6.0 points in our direction since opening, though the 41.8% hit rate indicates no edge at current price.
Torku Konyaspor at 2.60 sits 1.1% above fair from two books. The line has moved 4.3 points in our favor since opening. Our record on Turkey Super League home three-way draws 63% over 60 days, supporting the 38.9% hit rate.
CD Castellón at 2.25 prices below fair 2.30, paying 98% of fair. The 43.4% hit band reflects the matchup, with Castellón winning six straight while the opponent won just one of six, yet our away record in La Liga 2 stands at 44%.
Hammarby IF at 1.77 prices below fair 1.82, paying 97% of fair value. Hammarby won four of its last five with a 1-0 victory most recently, implied by the 54.9% hit rate, but the price remains under fair.
Almería at 1.65 prices below fair 1.68, paying 98% of fair value. The hit band implies 59.6% success. Almería won six of its last eight with a 2-1 victory last time, though the price undervalues this matchup.
Manchester City at 2.30 prices below fair 2.34, paying 98% of fair. The 42.7% hit rate reflects expected performance, with Manchester City up 0.77 npxGD over the last 10 league matches, yet recent scoring output runs 2.30 points a match against a 1.80 expected.
New England Patriots moneyline at -196 is priced 4% under fair value across four books, with a 63.6% hit rate and the book paying 96% of fair. New England's pass EPA edge of 0.21 per dropback over eight games is the primary factor. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Draw at 3.30 offers 1.1% EV against a 3.26 fair from two books. Our 60-day Serie B draw record stands at 51%, matching the 30.6% hit probability, though all quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Seattle Seahawks moneyline at -161 prices at fair value across four books with a 61.5% hit rate. The book pays exactly fair. Quotes are all older than 30 minutes. Pass EPA favors San Francisco by 0.09 per dropback in the last eight games.
Palmeiras at 1.65 prices below fair 1.70, paying 97% of fair. The 58.7% hit rate reflects recent form with three wins in four games against an opponent at zero of seven, and a 79% home record in Brazil Série A over 60 days, though the line has moved 5.5 points against us since opening.
Washington's moneyline at Fanatics sits at 96 percent of fair value built from three sources, with a 65.6 percent hit rate and the Capitals coming off a 3-1 win. The book's price is essentially at fair despite the recent form supporting the line.
Seattle's +1.5 spread at BetMGM prices within one percent of the three-book fair at 1.75, carrying a 57 percent hit rate. The Kraken covered this spread in their last outing, though the quote age and tight pricing leave minimal cushion.
Carolina's moneyline at DraftKings prices at 97 percent of fair value across three books, with the Hurricanes showing 4 wins in their last 6 games against Philadelphia's 0-6 stretch. The 62.2 percent hit rate reflects modest edge, though all quotes are over 30 minutes old.
Carolina's -1.5 spread at Fanatics prices at 95 percent of fair, well below the 39 percent hit rate warranting 2.57 decimal odds. The line has moved against the fair by 4.7 points since opening, and all quotes exceed 30 minutes old.
Milwaukee Brewers moneyline at -109 sits 3.6 percentage points below fair value built from four books, implying a 50.2% hit rate. The book pays 96% of fair, a slight discount that put this on the slate as consensus pricing from multiple sources held firm.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
Two independent clusters combine a 28.5% hit rate with positive EV of 2.4% and a 102% pays-of-fair, suggesting the priced odds slightly exceed fair value while keeping a reasonable chance of both legs landing.
