The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
Sporting LisbonatRC LensUEFA Champions League9:45 AM· 1 pick
BetMGM-1.9%UEFA Champions LeagueHitMid
+1652.65
✓Sporting Lisbon Moneyline
Sporting Lisbon won its last game 3-1
Fair from 2
+170
Hit
37.0%
Pays of Fair
98%
Closed
+165
CLV
+0.0 pts
Sporting Lisbon at 2.65 is under fair of 2.70 from two books with a 37% hit rate and negative EV at 98% of fair. The book's price reflects its market consensus.
Bristol City's price of 2.00 is at fair value of 2.06 from two books, with a 48.5% hit rate. The bet is priced at 97% of fair; Bristol City won five of its last seven matches while opponent Blackburn won three of six.
Burnley at 1.67 sits 0.7% above fair of 1.66 built from two books, with a 60.3% hit rate that implies value. The book pays 101% of fair. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Swansea City won 5 of last 6; opponent 3 of 6Swansea City won its last game 2-1
Fair from 2
+187
Hit
34.9%
Pays of Fair
94%
Closed
+170
CLV
+0.0 pts
Swansea City at 2.70 is well under fair of 2.87 from two books, with 34.9% hit rate implying a minus 5.9% EV at 94% of fair. Swansea won five of its last six games and captured its last match 2-1.
Middlesbrough at 1.95 is under fair of 2.02 from two books with a 49.5% hit rate and minus 3.5% EV at 96% of fair. Middlesbrough won 1-0 in its last outing.
PK-ZHZHPPublished 9d ago
Preston North EndatBirmingham CityChampionship12:00 PM· 1 pick
Fanatics-1.2%ChampionshipHitMid
-1611.62
✓Birmingham City Moneyline
Birmingham City won 3 of last 4; opponent 1 of 7Birmingham City won its last game 1-0
Fair from 2
-156
Hit
61.0%
Pays of Fair
99%
Closed
-161
CLV
+0.0 pts
Context · MediumContext: Preston: Callum Lang and Johnny Kenny under injury assessment after Millwall; Ali McCann sidelined with hamstring injury; Caleb Wiley doubtful. sports.yahoo.com
Birmingham City at 1.62 is priced slightly under fair of 1.64 from two books. The 61% hit rate drove the slate inclusion, though the pick carries negative EV at 99% of fair; Birmingham won three of four recently including a 1-0 victory last time out.
Montréal Canadiens won its last game 1-0Opponent on the second night of a back-to-back (rested 3 days)
Fair from 3
-145
Hit
59.2%
Pays of Fair
98%
Closed
-154
CLV
+0.0 pts
Montréal at -154 prices at 98% of the 1.69 fair built from three books, implying 59.2% to win. The book's price sits at fair value; three sources agree on the line. Montréal won 1-0 in its last game while Buffalo plays the second night of a back-to-back.
PK-ERBVLPublished 9d ago
Washington CapitalsatCarolina HurricanesNHL3:55 PM· 1 pick
Caesars-2.6%NHLHitMid
-1561.64
✓Carolina Hurricanes Moneyline
Carolina Hurricanes won 5 of last 7; opponent 3 of 5Carolina Hurricanes won its last game 4-1
Fair from 3
-147
Hit
59.4%
Pays of Fair
97%
Closed
-156
CLV
+0.0 pts
Context · MediumContext: Jordan Staal status unclear after missing Sunday game; ruled out last-minute with lower-body injury and no confirmation he plays tonight. thehockeynews.com
Carolina at -156 prices at 97% of the 1.68 fair from three books, carrying a 59.4% hit rate. The price is at or under fair; three books align on the line. Carolina won five of seven and won 4-1 last time; Washington won three of five.
Seattle Kraken won 4 of last 6; opponent 0 of 7Seattle Kraken won its last game 5-3
Fair from 3
+110
Hit
47.6%
Pays of Fair
99%
Closed
+107
CLV
+0.0 pts
Seattle at +107 prices at 99% of the 2.1 fair from three books, carrying a 47.6% hit rate. The book's price sits at fair value; three sources concur. Seattle won four of six and beat Philadelphia 5-3 recently, while Philadelphia lost all seven recent games.
PK-UDZYRPublished 9d ago
St Louis BluesatOttawa SenatorsNHL4:40 PM· 1 pick
DraftKings-2.1%NHLMissedMid
-1151.87
✕Ottawa Senators Moneyline
Ottawa Senators won 4 of last 5; opponent 2 of 5Ottawa Senators won its last game 3-2
Fair from 2
-110
Hit
52.3%
Pays of Fair
98%
Closed
-115
CLV
+0.0 pts
Context · MediumContext: Nikolas Matinpalo upper-body injury uncertain; will be reevaluated on game day per Travis Green. nhl.com
Ottawa at -115 prices at 98% of the 1.91 fair built from two books with a 52.3% hit rate. The price sits at fair value. Ottawa won five of six including a 4-1 recent win while St Louis won two of five, though St Louis rested three days.
PK-ZU7WCPublished 9d ago
Florida International PanthersatJacksonville State GamecocksNCAAF5:00 PM· 1 pick
DraftKings-1.9%NCAAFHitMid
-1471.68
✓Jacksonville State Gamecocks Moneyline
Jacksonville State Gamecocks won its last game 27-26SP+ -2.2 vs -7.6 (rank 77 vs 99): expects +7.9 with home field
Fair from 2
-141
Hit
58.4%
Pays of Fair
98%
Closed
-147
CLV
+0.0 pts
Jacksonville State's moneyline at -147 sits just under the 1.71 fair line built from two books, paying 98% of fair value. SP+ projects a 5.5-point home advantage despite the Gamecocks' 84th-ranked offense against Florida International's 95th-ranked defense. The pick reflects a 58.4% win probability and recent momentum from a 27-26 victory, though our record on NCAAF home favorites over 60 days stands at 42%.
Pittsburgh Penguins won 3 of last 6; opponent 1 of 6Pittsburgh Penguins won its last game 2-1
Fair from 3
-132
Hit
56.9%
Pays of Fair
98%
Closed
-137
CLV
+0.0 pts
Context · MediumContext: Bryan Rust day-to-day upper-body issue; Bedard likely but game-time decision through morning skate. Where to Watch, Stream Info
Pittsburgh at -137 prices at 98% of the 1.76 fair from three books, implying 56.9% to win. The price is at fair value. Pittsburgh won three of six with a 2-1 victory last time; Chicago won just one of six.
PK-7AWQQPublished 9d ago
Toronto Maple LeafsatUtah MammothNHL6:10 PM· 1 pick
BetMGM-3.0%NHLHitMid
-1541.65
✓Utah Mammoth Moneyline
Utah Mammoth won its last game 4-1
Fair from 3
-143
Hit
58.8%
Pays of Fair
97%
Closed
-154
CLV
+0.0 pts
Utah at -154 prices at 97% of the 1.7 fair from three books, implying a 58.8% hit rate. The book's price is at or under fair; three sources agree on the line. Utah won 4-1 in its last game.
PK-R7SK2Published 9d ago
Calgary FlamesatAnaheim DucksNHL6:55 PM· 1 pick
DraftKings-3.2%NHLMissedMid
-2041.49
✕Anaheim Ducks Moneyline
Anaheim Ducks won 4 of last 5; opponent 0 of 5Anaheim Ducks won its last game 4-2
Fair from 3
-185
Hit
65.0%
Pays of Fair
97%
Closed
-204
CLV
+0.0 pts
Context · MediumContext: Cutter Gauthier and Ryan Poehling remain day-to-day after injuries in prior game; Ducks likely to open without both, per CBS Sports and team sources. cbssports.com
Anaheim at -204 prices at 97% of the 1.54 fair built from three books, with a 65% hit rate. The price is at or under fair. Anaheim won four of five and won 4-2 last time; Calgary lost all five recent games.
PK-W2468Published 9d ago
Edmonton OilersatLos Angeles KingsNHL7:40 PM· 1 pick
Caesars-1.6%NHLHitMid
-1201.83
✓Edmonton Oilers Moneyline
Edmonton Oilers won 4 of last 5; opponent 0 of 4Edmonton Oilers won its last game 3-1
Fair from 3
-116
Hit
53.8%
Pays of Fair
98%
Closed
-120
CLV
+0.0 pts
Edmonton at -120 prices at 98% of the 1.86 fair from three books with a 53.8% hit rate. The book's price sits at fair value; three sources agree. Edmonton won four of five including a 3-1 recent win, while Los Angeles lost all four recent games.
PK-V92JGPublished 9d ago
Parlays
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
