Last 30 days · 282 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 146–127
Every pick published, placed or not.12 picks · 5 hit · CLV -0.2 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
Atlanta is priced at 96 pct of fair value with four books in agreement on the 49.7 pct hit rate. Chris Sale's 26.1 pct strikeout-to-walk rate supports the underlying probability. The book's price is modestly under fair.
Mookie Betts Under 1.5 Total Bases prices at 1.57 against a 1.66 fair built from three books, implying a 60% hit rate. BetMGM pays 94% of fair value here. The line has held steady across three straight games despite recent production shifting sharply, with a 20% rate over the last five games against a 50% season average.
Nashville's price of 2.3 is 4.1% below fair value from three books, offering no edge despite the Predators' 2-1 win last game. The bet implies a 41.7% hit rate and pays 96% of fair.
Nashville +1.5 at 1.53 is 1.6% below fair from three books with no positive edge. The line has moved 3.0 points in our favor since opening, and the Predators covered the spread last game with a 2-1 win.
Minnesota at 1.94 sits 2% below fair value from three books with no positive expectation. The Wild won their last game 4-1, but the price only pays 98% of fair and implies a 50.5% hit rate.
Ottawa at 1.95 sits just 0.5% above fair value from two books, implying a 51.5% hit rate. The Senators won their last two games including a 4-1 victory, though they play on the second night of a back-to-back while Detroit rests after two consecutive losses.
Carolina at 1.83 is 3.5% below fair from three books, offering no edge despite a 52.7% implied hit rate. The Hurricanes won last game 3-2, though the price pays just 97% of fair value.
New York Rangers at 1.69 trade 2.5% below fair from three books with no positive edge. The Rangers won three of their last four including a 4-2 victory, but the price only pays 97% of fair and implies a 57.7% hit rate.
Chicago +1.5 at 1.45 sits 1.6% below fair value from three books, offering no edge. The Blackhawks covered the 1.5 spread in their last game despite a 3-4 loss.
Milwaukee is priced at 98 pct of fair value after winning 7 of its last 8 games compared to San Diego's 5 of 8 over the same span. Four books agree on the fair line, implying a 45.4 pct hit rate. The book's price is at fair with a slight negative edge.
Both teams are combining for 10.3 runs per game over the last 14 days, supporting an over total at 99 pct of fair. Two books built the fair line, which implies a 52.4 pct probability. The book's price is at fair value.
Vegas at 1.59 sits 3.7% below fair value from three books with no edge. The Golden Knights won last game 3-2, but the price pays just 96% of fair and implies a 60.6% hit rate.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
No parlays in this view.
