Last 30 days · 282 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 146–127
Every pick published, placed or not.15 picks · 8 hit · CLV -0.2 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
Deportivo Riestra at 1.91 is 3% below fair of 1.97 from two books, paying 97% of fair with a 50.8% hit rate. The book's price sits at fair value given our 92% record on home moneylines in Primera División over the last 60 days.
Steven Kwan Total Bases Under 1.5 is priced at -200, just 1 percent below fair value built from three books at 1.52 decimal odds. The 66 percent hit rate implies a tight market with minimal edge at -1.1 percent EV. Recent results show Kwan went under this total on Oct 3 with zero total bases.
Chicago White Sox moneyline at 2.34 is priced at 96 percent of fair value across four books, with a 41.2 percent hit rate. The book's price is at or under fair despite the negative 3.7 percent EV, supported by agreement across four books and the recent 3-0 win. Our record on MLB road moneylines over 60 days stands at 173-222 for 44 percent.
Velez Sarsfield BA at 1.91 sits 2.1% below fair of 1.95 built from two books. The 51.2% hit rate implies slight positive value, though the book pays 98% of fair. Our record on home moneylines in this league over 60 days stands at 33-3, a 92% win rate that supports the pick.
Tampa Bay's price of -192 is 1% under a fair line of -194 built from three books, with a 64.9% hit rate. The Lightning won their last game 3-1. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Philadelphia's +1.5 spread at -145 is 1.4% under fair at -143 built from three books, with a 58.3% hit rate. The Flyers covered 1.5 in their last game, winning 2-3.
Pittsburgh's price of -169 is 3.1% under a fair line of -164 built from three books, with a 61% hit rate. The Penguins won 6-5 in their last game. Winnipeg is on the second night of a back-to-back having rested 2 days prior.
Winnipeg's +1.5 spread at -167 is 1.5% under fair at -162 built from three books, with a 61.6% hit rate. The Jets covered 1.5 in their last game, winning 3-2. Winnipeg is on the second night of a back-to-back with Pittsburgh rested 2 days prior.
Ottawa's price of -109 is 1.4% under fair at -105 built from three books, with a 51.3% hit rate. The Senators won 3-2 in their last game. Our record on NHL road h2h over 60 days is 16-20 (44%).
Under 6 goals at -120 is 5.3% under fair at -125 built from two books, with a 51.7% hit rate. Both teams' last games finished under 6 total goals.
San Jose's price of +145 is 3% under fair at +153 built from three books, with a 39.6% hit rate. The Sharks won 2 of their last 2 games while Dallas won 0 of 2. Our record on NHL road h2h over 60 days is 16-20 (44%).
San Jose's +1.5 spread at -167 is 1.7% under fair at -163 built from three books, with a 61.4% hit rate. The Sharks covered 1.5 in their last game, winning 5-4.
Tampa Bay Rays moneyline at 2.11 is priced at 97 percent of fair value across four books, with a 46 percent hit rate implying a slight negative edge of 2.9 percent. Four books agree on the 2.17 fair line. The Rays won their last game 1-0.
Rosario Central at 1.91 is 5% below fair of 2.01 from two books, paying 95% of fair. At a 49.7% hit rate, the price is at fair. Rosario Central won four of its last five games including a 1-0 victory, while Banfield won just one of five.
Atlanta at New Orleans totals 47.5 at -110, where the fair across two books sits at 1.99 with an even 50.3 percent hit rate. FanDuel pays 96 percent of fair, putting the play at -3.9 percent EV and slightly under value. Both teams went over this number in their last games.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
No parlays in this view.
