Last 30 days · 282 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 146–127
Every pick published, placed or not.15 picks · 8 hit · CLV +1.5 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
Total Under 48.5 at 1.88 decimal offers 7.2% EV against a 1.75 fair from two books, paying 107% of fair. The line has moved 4.8 points in the under's favor since the opening fair. All quotes are older than 30 minutes, and Washington's last game exceeded this total.
Washington Commanders at +188 prices at 2.88 decimal against a 2.91 fair line from four books. The Commanders show a +0.15 pass EPA edge per dropback over the last eight games and won their previous contest 33-31. Four books agree on the fair, implying 34.4% win probability, though the book's price sits 0.9% under fair.
Chicago Bears at -179 prices at 1.56 decimal against a 1.57 fair line built from four books. The Bears own a +0.61 pass EPA edge per dropback over their last eight games and won their most recent matchup 27-7. Four books agree on the fair, implying a 63.8% win probability, though the book's price sits 0.5% under fair value.
New York Giants at +118 price 2.18 decimal against a 2.25 fair from four books. The Giants show a +0.31 pass EPA edge per dropback over the last eight games and won their recent matchup 12-7. Four books agree on the fair, implying 44.4% win probability, though the book's price sits 3.2% under fair.
Atlético Huracán at fair price on a Primera División home moneyline where we have 91% hit rate over 60 days on this matchup type. Price sits 3.3% below fair against two books. Home team won its last game 2-1.
Atlanta Dream moneyline priced at -161 against a -165 fair built from four books. The Dream owns a plus-4.8 net rating edge over the last eight games and won its most recent contest decisively. At 60.6% hit rate, Caesars pays 98% of fair value, leaving minimal edge.
Germany at fair price against two books on a Nations League away moneyline where we have 72% hit rate over 60 days on this matchup type. Price sits 2.3% below fair, moved our way 5.9 points since opening. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
The Brewers moneyline at -141 prices at 96% of fair value derived from three books, implying a 56.2% hit rate. Milwaukee won its last game 3-2, and Logan Henderson owns a 24.5% K-BB% over 371 batters-faced. Henderson's 2.47 ERA exceeds his 3.30 xFIP, a caution that he is running hot.
Over 161.5 points priced at -106 against a -202 fair from three books. Las Vegas Aces have gone over this total in eight straight games, with expected output of 170.1 points last eight games. Golden State went under in its last game, a caution against the over. FanDuel pays 96% of fair, with a 49.5% hit rate and negative EV.
Las Vegas Raiders at +190 price 2.9 decimal against a 3.01 fair from four books. The Raiders won their last game 35-27. Four books agree on the fair, implying 33.2% win probability, though the book's price sits 3.8% under fair.
Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 at 1.95 decimal prices at fair against a 1.97 fair from three books. The Chiefs covered -4.5 in their last game with a 24-10 win. Three books agree on the fair, implying 50.7% cover probability. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
San Francisco 49ers at -145 prices at 1.69 decimal against a 1.74 fair from four books. The 49ers own a +0.08 pass EPA edge per dropback over their last eight games and won their most recent game 36-30. Four books agree on the fair, implying 57.4% win probability, though the book's price sits 3.1% under fair.
Utah Mammoth moneyline at 2.15 prices to 97 percent of the 2.21 fair built from three books, with a 45.2 percent hit rate and negative 2.9 percent EV. The pricing sits at fair despite Utah's 4-1 win in its last game. Utah faces a second night of a back-to-back while New York rested two days, and all quotes are over 30 minutes old.
The Dodgers moneyline at -145 matches fair value built from four books, with a 59% hit rate. Los Angeles won 6 of its last 8 games and took its most recent contest 5-3. Blake Snell's 22.5% K-BB% across 173 batters-faced underpins the matchup, though his 1.90 ERA trails his 3.06 xFIP, indicating he is running hot.
Anaheim Ducks moneyline at 2.14 sits at 97 percent of the 2.22 fair across three books, implying a 45.1 percent hit rate. The 3.4 percent negative EV reflects pricing at fair value rather than as an edge, though three independent sources agree on the fair line and the Ducks' recent 4-3 win provides some momentum. All quotes are at least 30 minutes old.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
Two independent clusters combine a moneyline and a totals outcome, offering 119% of fair value with an 18.6% EV edge. A 21.2% hit rate reflects a real but modest chance, not a guaranteed outcome, while the multi-cluster structure avoids over-weighting one opinion.
