Last 30 days · 269 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 139–122
Every pick published, placed or not.15 picks · 9 hit · CLV +1.1 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
Salford City at -149 sits just under fair value at 1.68 across two books, with a 59.5 percent hit rate implying 1 percent negative expected value. Two sources agree on the pricing. Salford won 4 of 7 recently and took the last match 4-1, while Fleetwood won just 2 of 4.
Caesars shows the White Sox at 2.32 versus a 2.37 fair built from four books, representing a 2% undervalue. The 42.3% hit rate and 98% payout of fair reflect consensus market pricing with modest edge.
DraftKings shows the Dodgers at 1.47 versus a fair of 1.49 from four books, representing a 1.5% undervalue. The 67% hit rate reflects the Dodgers' 6-of-8 recent record against Tampa's 4-of-8 form. The book pays 99% of fair value.
Oregon State Beavers Spread -6.5 is priced at fair value from three books with a 52.3% hit rate. The Beavers covered this spread last game by 26 points in a 33-7 win, supporting the current line. All quotes are aged over 30 minutes.
BetMGM prices Yankees at 2.15 against a 2.22 fair from four books, creating a 3.1% disadvantage. The line has moved against the fair by 4.8 points since opening, and the book pays only 97% of fair value at a 45.1% hit rate.
Caesars prices over 7 runs at 1.97 against a 2.01 fair from two books, a 1.8% undervalue. The Yankees have gone over in 6 of their last 7 games, and both teams' most recent games cleared this total. The line pays 98% of fair at a 49.9% hit rate.
DraftKings prices Columbus at 1.93 against a 2.00 fair line from three books, with the book paying 96% of fair. The 49.9% hit rate and three-book agreement brought it to the slate despite negative EV and older quotes.
DraftKings offers Seattle at 2.80 against a 2.89 fair line from three books. The book's price sits at 97% of fair value with negative EV. Three books agree, and Seattle's 6-1 last game result is already in the price.
Caesars offers the over 6.5 at 1.95 against a 1.96 fair line from two books. The line has moved 3.1 points in this pick's favor since opening, and both teams went over 6.5 in their last games. The book's price sits at fair value with minimal EV.
DraftKings prices Pittsburgh at 2.10 against a 2.16 fair line from three books, which puts the book's price below fair value at 97 pence per dollar. The 46.4% hit rate and three-book agreement placed it on the slate despite negative EV.
Caesars offers 2.27 against a 2.19 fair line built from two books, yielding 3.7% EV. The 45.7% hit rate sits in a modest range. Both teams' last games went under 5.5, supporting the total. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
DraftKings offers Minnesota at 1.52 against a 1.55 fair line from two books, paying 98% of fair. The 64.6% hit rate reflects Minnesota's strength, and Boston faces a back-to-back after playing two days prior. Three books agree despite negative EV.
BetMGM prices the Padres at 2.80, matching the fair line built from four books. This 0.1% edge comes from consensus pricing across the market, with a 35.8% hit rate implied. All quotes are over 30 minutes old.
BetMGM prices San Jose at 1.87 against a 1.93 fair line built from three books, paying 97% of fair. The 51.8% hit rate and three-book consensus placed this on the slate, though EV is negative.
Arizona Wildcats Spread -6.5 offers a modest 0.7% edge against the 1.91 fair from three books, with Caesars paying 101% of fair. The Wildcats covered the same spread last game, winning 34-24. All quotes are over 30 minutes old.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
Two independent clusters cover separate games, pricing at 103% of fair with positive EV of 3.4% and a 23.4% hit rate, offering genuine edge without relying on a single correlated view.
Two independent clusters combine a 31.7% hit rate with 1% EV and 101% pays of fair, the strongest balance of edge and probability among the candidates, with payout of 3.19 reflecting fair pricing.
