Last 30 days · 269 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 139–122
Every pick published, placed or not.15 picks · 10 hit · CLV +1.3 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
France at -208 sits just below the 1.49 fair across two sources, implying 67.2 percent hit rate. The book pays 99 percent of fair value. Two books align on the pricing, though our record on UEFA Nations League home favorites runs to 44 percent over 60 days.
Clube de Regatas Brasil at 2.85 decimal trades under fair value of 2.92 across two sources. The book pays 98 percent of fair, but the 34.3 percent hit rate reflects longer odds and all quotes are older than 30 minutes.
New York's moneyline sits at 2.15 against a 2.21 fair built from three books, implying a 45.3% win probability and pricing 2.6% below fair. The Rangers won their last game 5-1, though all quotes are at least 30 minutes old.
New York's plus-1.5 spread at 1.45 prices marginally below the 1.48 fair from three sources, with a 67.5% implied cover rate. The Rangers covered the same spread in their last game with a 5-1 victory, though quotes are at least 30 minutes old.
Liberty Flames -6.5 is priced at fair value with two books in agreement. The team covered this spread last game and SP+ metrics expect roughly a 10.7-point advantage accounting for home field, slightly above the current line. Hit rate of 52.7 percent reflects the modest edge in the fair estimate.
Virginia Tech -2.5 is priced at 97 percent of fair value across two books, a slight underpricing of 3 percent EV. The Hokies covered this number in their last game. All quotes are older than 30 minutes, limiting the freshness of the read.
Criciuma at 2.4 decimal is priced below the 2.56 fair line built from two sources, though it pays only 94 percent of fair value. The 39 percent hit rate is modest for the price, and every quote is older than 30 minutes.
Boston's price of 2.05 sits 3.4% below the fair line built from three books, which implies a 47.1% hit rate. The Bruins won their last game 3-0, though all quotes are at least 30 minutes old.
Boston's 1.5-point spread at 1.43 is nearly even with the 1.45 fair line across three books, implying 69.2% coverage probability. The Bruins covered the same spread last game with a 3-0 win and the line has moved 4.9 points in our direction since opening.
Dallas Wings +8 is priced at 96% of fair value across two books, with a 50% hit rate implying no edge. The pick made the slate on agreement among books and recent performance: Dallas covered this spread in 7 of the last 8 games and covered 8 points in the last game (108-100). All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Total Points Over 158.5 is priced at 98% of fair value with a 50.1% hit rate and a -2.2% EV, representing no meaningful edge. Dallas games went over this total in 8 straight, and both teams went over in their last contests. Expectations based on the last 8 games project 170.5 points against the 158.5 line. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
St Louis at plus-1.5 prices at 1.65 against a 1.67 fair line from three sources, showing a 59.9% cover rate. Dallas is running exceptionally hot with a 1.028 PDO, though quotes are at least 30 minutes dated.
St Louis at 2.59 prices 3.7% below the 2.69 fair line across three books, indicating a 37.2% win probability. The Blues face a Dallas team running extremely hot at a 1.028 PDO, though market data is aged at least 30 minutes.
Vegas at 1.53 is priced 4.1% under fair across three sources, with a 62.7% hit rate. The Golden Knights won 5-2 in their last outing, though market data is aged at least 30 minutes.
Over 6.5 goals at 1.83 sits 5.1% under fair across three sources, showing a 51.9% hit rate and 95% payout relative to fair. The total has moved 3.4 points in our direction since opening, though quotes are at least 30 minutes old.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
Three separate clusters mean three independent opinions rather than one bet priced three times. Pays at 101% of fair with positive EV near 0.5%, and a 21.8% hit rate reflects genuine three leg variance rather than false confidence.
