Last 30 days · 269 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 139–122
Every pick published, placed or not.10 picks · 8 hit · CLV +0.6 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
Philadelphia at +168 has 36.7% implied hit rate against a 2.72 fair from four books. The book pays 98% of fair value. Phillies won 7-3 in their last game and face Luzardo, who posts a 23.2% K-BB rate over 730 batters faced.
De La Cruz under 0.5 total bases offers 1.9% EV at 2.00 against a 1.96 fair from two books. The line has held steady while his recent form shifted from 20% to 45%, yet he hit the under in 7 of his last 10 games, a 70% rate.
Chicago White Sox at +110 shows a 46.7% hit band with four-book consensus fair of 2.14. BetMGM pays 98% of fair. White Sox won 6 of 8 and their last game 4-2 while Houston won 4 of 8, with Smith bringing a 22.7% K-BB rate on 110 batters.
Las Vegas Aces at plus-1.5 is priced below fair value by 4 percent against three sources. The Aces covered this number in eight of their last eight games and posted a net rating of plus-19.5 versus Indiana's plus-2.5 over that stretch, though the book prices this advantage at just 96 cents per dollar of fair.
New York at -139 has a 55% implied win rate against 1.82 fair from four books. FanDuel pays 95% of fair. Yankees won their last game 6-3 and Schlittler shows a 25.0% K-BB rate over 761 batters, though he is running hot with a 1.95 ERA against 2.86 xFIP.
Total runs over 6 at -119 implies a 52% hit rate from two books valuing fair at 1.92. DraftKings pays 96% of fair. Yankees games went over in 7 of 8 recent contests, including their last, and have covered this side in five straight games while the market implies 54%.
New York Liberty at 2.40 is priced at fair value according to four books. The Liberty posted a net rating of plus-5.4 over its last eight games against Minnesota's minus-3.4, an edge of 8.8 points, and won five of eight while the Lynx won three of eight.
New York Liberty covers plus-3.5 at minus-110 slightly below fair at minus-105 across three books. Over the last eight games Liberty's net rating of plus-5.4 towers over Minnesota's minus-3.4, a spread-relevant edge of 8.8, and the Liberty covered 3.5 in its most recent game.
San Diego at -125 carries a 54.2% hit rate with four-book fair at 1.84. The book pays 98% of fair. Padres won 6 of 8 and their last game 9-4, though their opponent Chicago won only 4 of 8.
Total runs over 7 at -115 carries a 51.8% hit rate against 1.93 fair from two books, paying 97% of fair. Both teams' most recent games went over 7 runs, though a 60-day record on MLB total overs stands at 376-463 for 45% accuracy.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
No parlays in this view.
