Last 30 days · 269 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 139–122
Every pick published, placed or not.4 picks · 2 hit · CLV -1.8 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
CD Castellón at +130 sits 3% under the fair line of +138 built from two books. The draw at -3.3% EV reflects that the price pays 97% of fair value. Castellón's recent form is strong, winning five straight with a 5-0 victory last time out, though our historical record on La Liga 2 away moneylines over 60 days stands at 40%.
France at -120 is 5.9% under fair value of -194, paying 94% of what the two-book consensus suggests. The hit rate of 51.4% sits at the expected level for the price. The line has moved against the fair by 5.5 points since opening, and our record on UEFA Nations League away moneylines over 60 days is 83%.
Philadelphia moneyline at -204 sits 4% under fair value of -206 across four books, with a 65.2% hit rate implying 3% positive EV. The Eagles show a +0.23 pass EPA edge over their last eight games, offsetting Chicago's defensive advantage in passing situations.
Philadelphia -3.5 at -105 is priced 2% under fair across two books, with a 50.5% hit rate at breakeven EV. The Eagles' +0.23 pass EPA edge over eight games supports the spread, though Chicago's pass defense rates above average at +0.12 EPA allowed per dropback.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
Two independent clusters combine for a 46.3% EV with a 42.7% hit rate, paying 146% of fair value. The legs come from separate games, so this isn't the same opinion priced twice.
