Last 30 days · 269 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 139–122
Every pick published, placed or not.15 picks · 4 hit · CLV -0.8 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
Cincinnati Bengals moneyline at -185 prices 62.7% implied probability against a 1.60 fair line from four books. The book pays 97% of fair. Bengals showed a +0.21 pass EPA edge per dropback over the last eight games and won their last game 20-6. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Carolina Panthers moneyline at -143 prices 57.2% implied probability against a 1.75 fair line from four books. Panthers posted a +0.22 pass EPA edge per dropback and dominated their last game 34-3. The book pays 97% of fair. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
New York Mets at -109 price to a 50.8% hit rate and sit 2.5% under fair from four sources. The Mets won their last game 7-1. The book pays 98 cents per dollar of fair.
Tampa Bay at +132 is priced at fair value minus 0.6%, with four books aligned. The Rays won five of eight and routed Philadelphia 12-1 in their last outing, implying a 42.9% hit rate. The book pays 99 cents per dollar of fair, though Nick Martinez's 2.94 ERA outpaces his 4.43 xFIP and the line has drifted 3.2 points against fair since opening.
Cincinnati at +150 sits 3.7% under fair built from three books, pricing to a 38.5% hit rate. The Reds won four of eight while Toronto took two of seven, and Cincinnati won 5-1 in their last game. The book pays 96 cents per dollar of fair.
Atlanta at -108 prices to a 50.4% hit rate and sits 2.7% under fair from four sources. The Braves won five of their last eight and beat Miami 8-3 most recently. The book pays 97 cents per dollar of fair.
Milwaukee at -244 is priced 3.3% under fair from four sources, implying a 68.6% win probability. The Brewers won seven of their last eight while St. Louis took two of eight, and Jacob Misiorowski's 31.7% K-BB ratio is elite. The book pays 97 cents per dollar of fair.
Detroit at +112 prices to a 45.4% hit rate and sits 3.7% under fair value from four books. The Tigers won their last game 4-3. The book pays 96 cents per dollar of fair.
Seattle at -179 sits 3.2% under fair value built from four books, with a 62.2% implied hit rate. Logan Gilbert's 20.2% K-BB ratio supports the pricing. The book pays 97 cents per dollar of fair.
Minnesota Vikings moneyline at -120 prices 52.3% implied probability against a 1.91 fair line built from four books. Vikings own a +0.35 pass EPA edge per dropback and have won their last two games while Tampa Bay is 0-2. The book pays 96% of fair. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Las Vegas at -154 prices to 58.9% hit rate on a 1.70 fair line built from four books. The Aces' net rating advantage of 11.6 points over the last eight games, combined with a 7-of-8 recent record against Indiana's 4-of-8 stretch, supports the consensus. DraftKings pays 97% of fair value here.
New Orleans Saints moneyline at -172 prices 61.6% implied probability against a 1.62 fair line from four books. Saints show a +0.41 pass EPA edge per dropback and won their last game 24-17. The book pays 97% of fair. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
New York Yankees at -130 are priced 1.7% under fair value from four books, implying a 55.5% win probability. The Yankees won their last game 6-3. The book pays 98 cents per dollar of fair.
Los Angeles Rams moneyline at -130 prices 54.7% implied probability against a 1.83 fair line built from four books. The book pays 97% of fair value. Rams dominated their last game 28-6. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Los Angeles Rams spread -2.5 at -105 prices 48.6% implied probability against a 2.06 fair line built from three books. The book pays 95% of fair value. Rams covered -2.5 in their last game, winning 28-6. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
Two independent clusters, 43.8% hit rate and 32.8% EV with payout at 133% of fair price, a solid combination of a real chance to hit and value above fair odds.
