Last 30 days · 269 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 139–122
Every pick published, placed or not.15 picks · 7 hit · CLV +0.3 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
Nationals moneyline at 2.16 falls short of the 2.22 fair line from four books, offering 45% hit rate at 97% of value. Washington just took down New York 7-6 despite sitting as a significant underdog here.
Blue Jays moneyline sits at 1.63 against 1.67 fair from four books, pricing 59.9% and paying 98% of value. Toronto just won 6-5 though Blue Jays starter Trey Yesavage runs with ERA 3.67 against xFIP 4.57, suggesting potential regression.
Cincinnati at +6.5 is priced at 1.95 against a fair 1.94 built from two books, offering 0.7% EV. The Bearcats covered this spread last game with a 35-31 result. Note that all quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Guardians moneyline prices 54% at 1.82 from the 1.85 fair line agreed across four books. Cleveland won 6 of 8 while Kansas City took just 2, but Caesars discount of 2% to fair leaves minimal edge.
White Sox moneyline at 1.43 prices 67.3% probability but sits 3.8% below the 1.49 fair from four books. Chicago won 6 of last 8 and just beat Colorado 6-1, though the book pays only 96% of fair value.
Brewers moneyline at 1.53 sits just shy of the 1.58 fair from four books, pricing 63.2% probability. Milwaukee won 6 of last 8 while St. Louis won just 2, but the book's price at 97% of fair means no edge here.
Philadelphia Union at 1.44 is priced below fair at 1.47 from two books, carrying -2% EV and a 68% hit rate. The Union have won six straight while Orlando City has won four of six, though all quotes are older than 30 minutes.
St. Louis City at 2.05 is priced below the 2.08 fair line from two books, showing -1.6% EV and a 48% hit rate. The City have won five straight and beat New York 3-1 in their last match, though quotes are older than 30 minutes.
FC Dallas at 2.34 decimal is fairly priced against the 2.34 fair line from two books, showing a 42.7% hit rate with minimal edge. Dallas have won five of their last six matches while LAFC has won just one of two.
Seattle Sounders at 2.10 is priced slightly below the 2.12 fair line from two books, offering a 47.1% hit rate with -1.1% EV. The Sounders won their last match 2-0, though they last played three days ago against an opponent with a seven-day layoff.
Houston Dynamo at 1.48 is priced below fair at 1.53 from two books, showing -3.1% EV with a 65.5% hit rate. The Dynamo have won three of five while Sporting Kansas City has won just one of seven, though all quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Diamondbacks moneyline offers plus-money at 2.06 against a 2.03 fair line from three books, giving 1.6% EV. Arizona just beat San Diego 11-4 and remains a slight underdog despite the matchup outcome.
New England Revolution at 2.95 decimal is fairly priced against the 2.95 fair line built from two books, showing a 33.9% hit rate. The Revolution have won five of their last seven matches while Real Salt Lake has not won in seven, though all quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Angels-Mariners total goes over 7.5 in 7 of Angels last 8 and 6 of Mariners last 8, supporting the 51.2% hit rate. Caesars at 1.92 is 2% below the 1.95 fair line built from three books, with Angels showing a 6-game streak on this side though the market implies 52%.
Angels moneyline at 2.66 trails the 2.73 fair from four books by 2.5%, pricing 36.6% probability. Los Angeles just beat Seattle 7-5 as a clear underdog in this spot.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
Two independent clusters back these favorites, with a 25.5% hit rate and payout matching fair price at 100% of fair, giving a slight positive EV of 0.1% with no shared bias between the two picks.
