Last 30 days · 269 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 139–122
Every pick published, placed or not.15 picks · 11 hit · CLV +1.5 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
SC Fortuna Köln at +130 sits at 39.6% probability against a 2.53 fair line from two sources, paying 91% of fair. The price is at fair value with no edge; all quotes are older than 30 minutes. Our record on 3. Liga away h2h play stands at 23-16 across 60 matches.
BetMGM at 1.80 offers 3.6% EV against a 1.74 fair built from 2 books, implying a 57.6% hit rate. Holmes has gone under 4.5 strikeouts in 5 of his last 10 outings, a 50% rate against the 56% the line assumes. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
BetMGM at 1.83 sits 3.7% under a 1.90 fair from 4 books, placing the book's price at fair. The Cubs won their last game 2-1 and show a 52.6% implied hit rate.
Girona FC at -189 carries a 63.7% hit rate against a fair line of 1.57 built from two books. The moneyline price pays 97% of fair value, leaving minimal edge. Two sources agree on the fair, and Girona won its last match 2-1.
Temple Owls Spread +3 prices at 97 percent of fair across two books. The fair implies a 49.7 percent hit rate. Temple covered this spread last game, 48-49. The book's price sits 3 percent under fair value. Caution: PPA shows a -0.21 per play efficiency edge favoring Army.
BetMGM at 1.87 sits 4.9% under a 1.97 fair from 4 books, placing the book's price at or under fair. The Cubs won their last game 2-1. The line has moved against the Cubs by 3.7 points since opening at fair value.
BetMGM at 2.15 sits just 1.6% under a 2.18 fair from 3 books, placing the book's price at fair. The Nationals won 6 of 8 recently versus the Mets at 4 of 8, and took their last game 4-2.
Vila Nova is at -135 on DraftKings against a fair line of 1.79 built from two sources. The 55.8% hit rate implies 1.79 decimal value, but the book's 1.74 price sits 2.9% below fair and pays 97% of it. Vila Nova won 5 of its last 6 while Londrina won 1 of 6, yet the line has moved against the pick by 5.5 points since opening. Our record on Brazil Série B home moneylines stands at 40% over 60 matchups.
Caesars at 1.57 sits 2% under a 1.60 fair from 4 books, placing the book's price at fair. The Brewers won 6 of 8 recently while the Cardinals managed only 3 of 8, and Milwaukee took its last game 5-1.
BetMGM prices the White Sox moneyline at 1.44, which sits 3.4% under fair at 1.49 from 4 books. The book's price is at fair value. The White Sox won 5 of 8 recently and took their last game 9-1 against a Rockies team that won just 2 of 8.
Northwestern Wildcats Spread +20.5 prices at 98 percent of fair across two books. The fair implies a 49.2 percent hit rate. Northwestern covered this spread last game, 41-7. The book's price sits 1.5 percent under fair value. Caution: PPA shows a -0.34 per play efficiency edge favoring Indiana.
Northwestern at Indiana total under 50 is priced at 1.91 against a fair line of 1.99 built from two books. The fair implies a 50.1 percent hit rate, though the book pays 96 percent of fair value, making this selection at or under fair. Both teams' last games stayed under 50 points.
BetMGM at 1.95 sits 4.5% under a 2.04 fair from 4 books, placing the book's price at or under fair. The Twins won their last game 4-2, and starter Joe Ryan has a 20.6% K-BB rate across 588 batters faced.
BetMGM at 2.15 sits 3.4% under a 2.23 fair from 4 books, placing the book's price at fair. The Angels won their last game 6-4, and starter Reid Detmers carries a 22.0% K-BB rate over 718 batters faced.
Clemson Tigers Spread -1 prices at 97 percent of fair across two books. The fair implies a 50.6 percent hit rate. Clemson covered -1 last game, 28-20. The book's price sits 3.3 percent under fair value. Caution: PPA shows a -0.15 per play efficiency edge favoring California.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
Two independent clusters combine a strikeout under and a spread pick, with a 28.6% hit rate and pays of fair at 100%, giving a modest but positive 0.5% EV without relying on one repeated opinion.
Two independent clusters combine a pitcher strikeout under with a moneyline pick, each priced near fair value, giving a 38.6% hit rate and slight positive EV. Chicago White Sox have won 5 of their last 8 games, supporting this leg's inclusion.
