Last 30 days · 269 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 139–122
Every pick published, placed or not.12 picks · 5 hit · CLV +1.3 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
The book's price is at fair value; four books agree. St. Louis won 5-1 yesterday. The Cardinals are priced at 2.38 on DraftKings with a 40.5% hit rate and minus-3.6% EV.
Peters hit 9 of 10 under 1.5 total bases (90%) versus a 62% fair line built from two books. Caesars prices this at 1.61, paying 98% of fair with a 60.8% hit rate. He has stayed under in 8 straight games, though all quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Pasquantino hit 7 of 10 over 1.5 total bases (70%) versus a 42% fair line from two books. Caesars prices this at 2.36, paying 95% of fair with a 40.4% hit rate. He has gone over in 5 straight games, though all quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Lindor hit 8 of 10 under 1.5 total bases (80%) versus a 61% implied rate. Caesars prices this at 1.64 versus 1.68 fair from two books, paying 97% of fair with a 59.4% hit rate. The line has not moved in three games despite recent form dropping to 20% over the last five.
Seager went under yesterday with 0 total bases. Caesars prices under 1.5 at 1.67 versus 1.73 fair from two books, paying 96% of fair with a 57.7% hit rate. The line has not moved in three games while recent form dropped to 20% over the last five.
Norway at -145 is priced at 1.69 decimal, a 3.7 percent undervalue against a 1.75 fair line built from two books with a 57 percent hit rate. The line has moved favorably 3.6 points since opening, putting the book at 96 percent of fair value.
Arizona won 5 of 8 recent games to Colorado's 2 of 8. BetMGM prices the Diamondbacks at 1.53 versus a 1.58 fair from four books, paying 97% of fair with a 63.4% hit rate. Note Rodriguez is running hot with ERA 2.89 against xFIP 4.41.
Boston is priced at 1.74 on Caesars versus a 1.78 fair line from four books, paying 98% of fair with a 56.2% hit rate. The book's price is at fair value. Boston won 1-0 yesterday.
The book's price is at fair value; four books agree on the line. Yankees beat Tampa 9-2 yesterday. Schlittler carries a strong 25.0% K-BB rate but is running hot with ERA 1.94 against xFIP 2.86.
Indiana Fever at -4.5 is priced at 95 pence per fair dollar across two sources. The Fever's net rating advantage of 9.0 points over the last eight games supports this line, and they covered this exact spread in their last outing. Hit rate of 49.5 percent reflects the tight margin.
Total Points Under 182.5 is priced at 95 pence per fair dollar from two sources. Minnesota went under this total in seven of eight recent games, and both teams' latest contests settled below 182.5. The 48.8 percent hit rate indicates a close call at fair value.
Under 44.5 at -110 prices at 96 percent of fair value across two book quotes. The fair implies a 50.4 percent hit rate, while both teams' most recent games finished under this total. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
Two independent clusters combine for 8.1% EV at 108% of fair value, with a 23.5% hit rate. Fever legs show a net rating edge of +9.0 over the last 8 games, supporting the spread leg's inclusion here.
