Last 30 days · 282 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 146–127
Every pick published, placed or not.15 picks · 9 hit · CLV +0.9 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
Chicago at 187 versus four-book fair of 191 pays 98% of fair with a 52.4% hit rate. The White Sox won 7 of their last 8 and their last game 4-3, while Cleveland managed only 4 of 8, providing concrete recent form underlying the near-fair pricing.
Los Angeles at 170 against a four-book fair of 173 pays 98% of fair with a 57.8% hit rate. The Dodgers' recent win and Glasnow's elite 25.3% K-BB% support the modest favorite, though the book's discount is marginal at negative 1.7% EV.
Vila Nova at 2.20 is priced 1.3% under fair value of 2.23 built from two books. The 44.9% hit rate implies fair odds, and this pick landed on the slate as two books agree on the pricing. Vila Nova won 6 of its last 7 matches while Cuiabá took 4 of 6. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Fortaleza at 1.91 is priced 2.5% under fair value of 1.96 built from two books. The 51% hit rate provides a minimal statistical edge, but the book's price pays 97% of fair. Fortaleza won 4 straight while América Mineiro won only 2 of its last 8. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Atlanta Dream moneyline at -123 prices at 97 percent of fair value from four book agreement. Dream's net rating edge of 11.9 points over the last eight games and an 8-of-8 winning streak support the play at a 53.6 percent hit rate, but the line has moved 4.4 points against us since the opening.
Pittsburgh's 1.5 spread at -169 matches fair value exactly across three books with a 62.7 percent hit rate. The Penguins covered 1.5 in their last game, though all quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Winnipeg's 1.5 spread at -154 prices 0.7 percent below fair from three sources with a 60.2 percent hit rate. The Jets covered 1.5 last game and our 60-day home spread record is 30-19, though all quotes are over 30 minutes old.
Winnipeg's moneyline at +157 sits 3.4 percent under fair value from three books, with a 37.6 percent hit rate. The Jets won their last game 3-2 and our 60-day home record is 20-10, but the price remains below fair despite these factors.
Florida International's SP+ rating of -7.6 outpaces New Mexico State's -17.8 by 12.7 points with home field, and the Panthers just won 20-3. BetMGM prices this moneyline at -233 versus a fair -209 across three books, implying 68.4% to win. The book pays 98% of fair value, leaving minimal edge at -2.2% EV. Our record on NCAAF home h2h over 60 days stands at 42%, a significant caution.
The Over 46.5 sits at -110 on Fanatics with a 51% hit rate, falling short of fair value by 2.6% EV. Two books set fair at 1.96 decimal, and this over pays 97% of that mark. New Mexico State has landed over in five straight games, though the market now prices 52% for this total, and Florida International's last contest went under.
Tampa Bay sits at 143 on four-book consensus of 151, paying 97% of fair value with a 39.8% hit rate. The Rays won their last game, though pitcher Martinez shows concerning indicators: his 3.10 ERA trails his 4.47 xFIP, suggesting recent performance may not persist.
Golden State Valkyries moneyline at -120 prices at 98 percent of fair value across four books. The line has moved 3.5 points in our direction since opening. Valkyries won their last game and we show a 55 percent hit rate on WNBA home h2h over 60 days, though a 5-point net rating disadvantage in the last eight games tempers the profile.
Edmonton's moneyline at -125 sits 1.7 percent under fair value built from three books, implying a 54.6 percent win probability. The Oilers won their last game 3-1, but quotes are older than 30 minutes and our 60-day away record is 22-30.
Anaheim's 1.5 spread at -208 prices 2.1 percent under fair from three sources with a 66.1 percent hit rate. The Ducks covered 1.5 last game and our 60-day home spread record is 30-19, but the book pays 98 percent of fair value.
San Diego at 189 against four-book fair of 196 pays 96% of fair with a 51% hit rate. The Padres' latest win provides direct support, though the home favorite is priced at a 3.7% discount to consensus and the underlying advantage is narrow.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
No parlays in this view.
