Last 30 days · 269 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 139–122
Every pick published, placed or not.9 picks · 5 hit · CLV +0.3 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
Independiente Rivadavia at 2.4 decimal sits 3.3 percent under the 2.48 fair built from two sources, paying 97 percent of fair. The 40.3 hit rate yields negative EV on a pick priced at fair value. Independiente Rivadavia won 4 of 7 recently and scored 4 goals in its last match; Barracas Central took 2 of 5.
Ryan is named probable starter but has no game log yet, so the fair is built from just two books. The -111 price sits slightly under the 1.92 fair line, paying 99 cents on the dollar. Our record on MLB strikeouts over the past 60 days stands at 45-61, a 42% hit rate.
Wood has hit under 1.5 total bases in 7 of his last 10 at-bats, a 70% clip against the 58.7% hit rate implied by the fair. The -149 price pays 98 cents per fair dollar, nearly even with three books in agreement on the 1.7 line.
Blue Jays-Orioles total over 7.5 at -112 is 3.9% below fair from two sources with a 50.9% hit rate. Toronto went over in eight straight games and eight straight on this side of the line at current market odds. The book pays 96% of fair value, though Baltimore's last game came under.
Toronto Blue Jays moneyline at -104 is 3% below fair across three books with a 49.5% hit rate. The Blue Jays won their last game 7-2. The book pays 97% of fair value, with the caution that starter Trey Yesavage's ERA of 3.65 sits well below his xFIP of 4.63.
Lanus at 2.15 decimal prices below the 2.27 fair from two sources, at 95 percent of fair value with 44 percent hit rate and negative 5.5 percent EV. The book's price reflects fair odds where two market sources align. Lanus won 3 of 7 matches and 3-0 in its most recent game; Estudiantes has played once.
Cuiabá at 2.05 decimal prices just under the 2.11 fair line built from two market sources, paying 97 percent of fair value. The 47.3 hit rate and negative 3.1 percent EV reflect a tight match where the book's price is at fair. Cuiabá won 4 of its last 5 matches while Nautico has played once. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Minnesota Twins at -115 sits just 3% below fair across three books, with a 51.8% hit rate. The Twins won three of their last eight and took their last game 8-0, though a recent loss streak tempers the appeal. The book pays 97% of fair value.
Minnesota Twins-San Francisco Giants total over 8 at -115 is 3.7% below fair from two sources with a 51.5% hit rate. San Francisco went over 8 in six of eight recent games, and the wind at 16 km/h blowing out to centre favors fly balls. The book pays 96% of fair value.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
No parlays in this view.
