Last 30 days · 269 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 139–122
Every pick published, placed or not.15 picks · 6 hit · CLV +0.8 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
Union Saint-Gilloise at -164 against a 1.64 fair from two books has a 61% hit rate but pays 98% of fair value. The side won 5-0 in its last outing.
AIK at +100 against a 2.05 fair has a 48.7% hit rate and returns 97% of fair value. AIK won three of five recent matches while its opponent won only one of six.
Como at -189 against a 1.55 fair built from two books carries a 64.6% hit rate but pays just 99% of fair value. The book's price sits at fair despite Como winning its last match 2-1.
Lille at +105 against a 2.10 fair from two sources shows a 47.5% hit rate and 97% payout of fair. The side won three straight including 2-0 last time with a +0.62 expected goal differential edge over its last ten league matches, though quotes exceed 30 minutes and actual output ran 2.10 points on 1.57 expected.
Villarreal at -189 carries a 64.3% hit rate against a 1.55 fair from two sources but returns only 98% of fair. Villarreal won 3-1 last time and posted 0.90 points per match on 1.54 expected over its last ten games.
The Bears moneyline at -196 is priced at 99 percent of the fair line built from three books, implying a 65.7 percent hit rate. The book's price sits at or under fair value, with three sources in agreement on the fair. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Bodø/Glimt at -161 carries a 60.4% hit rate against a 1.65 fair from two sources but returns only 98% of fair. Bodø/Glimt won 3-2 in its last game.
TSG Hoffenheim at -145 against a 1.74 fair from two books carries a 57.6% hit rate but pays 97% of fair value. Hoffenheim won 2-1 in its last game, though the quote is over 30 minutes old.
Washington at +126 sits 3 percent below the +134 fair from four books, with a 42.8 percent implied win rate. Jake Irvin's 4.72 xFIP trails his 5.51 ERA, pointing to some fortune in his actual results. The Nationals won 6 of 8 while St. Louis took 3 of 8, but the book prices this at fair value.
Colorado at +141 sits 4 percent below the +147 fair from three books, with a 40.5 percent win probability. The Rockies won 5-3 in their last game, and our home h2h record runs 60 percent over the past 60 days at 159-108. The price reflects fair value with minimal advantage.
Cleveland at -233 sits just below the -226 fair built from four books, implying a 68 percent hit rate. The Guardians took 5 of 8 lately while Oakland managed 3 of 8. Gavin Williams shows a 2.84 xFIP against his 3.78 ERA, suggesting some bad luck, though the book's price at 97 percent of fair offers minimal edge.
San Diego at -133 sits just under the -138 fair built from four books, suggesting a 55.7 percent hit rate. The Padres won 7 of 8 and just beat Miami 7-6, while our 60-day home h2h record stands at 159-108 (60 percent). The book prices this at 97 percent of fair.
Chicago at -116 sits below the -125 fair from four books, implying a 52.1 percent win probability. The White Sox won 3-1 in their last game, and our 60-day home record runs 159-108 (60 percent). The book's price at 97 percent of fair leaves no edge.
Belgrano de Cordoba at -227 against a 1.48 fair holds a 67.8% hit rate but pays 98% of fair value. Belgrano won two of four recent matches while its opponent managed zero wins in five, though all quotes are over 30 minutes old.
Milwaukee at -204 sits near the -217 fair price built from four books, implying a 65.1 percent hit rate. The Brewers won 6 of their last 8 games and took down Baltimore 1-0 last time out. Jacob Misiorowski's 31.6 percent K-BB rate stands strong over 636 batters faced, though the book's 97 percent of fair represents no edge.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
Three independent clusters combine for a 32.4% hit rate with 29.4% EV, paying 129% of fair value. Diversified across three different leagues, this parlay reflects three distinct opinions rather than one repeated bet.
With three separate clusters spanning soccer, MLB, and Argentine football, this parlay carries a 37.6% hit rate and 24.7% EV at 125% of fair value, reflecting genuinely independent selections rather than correlated legs.
