Last 30 days · 269 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 139–122
Every pick published, placed or not.15 picks · 11 hit · CLV +1.5 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
The book's 1.83 price sits below fair at 1.84 from two sources, yielding minus-0.8% EV. Celta Vigo has six days since last play versus Racing's three-day rest advantage.
BetMGM's 1.98 is below the 2.0 fair line from two books, delivering minus-0.8% EV. Lazio won three consecutive matches while Venezia lost four straight.
The book's 1.44 price is at fair value from two sources, offering no edge at a 69.1% hit rate. Atletico Mineiro won its last game 3-1.
Cleveland Guardians -1.5 at +128 carries 1 percent edge over 2.26 fair from three books. The Guardians covered the spread last game 5-3 at home, though our 60-day record on MLB spreads at home is only 41 percent. FanDuel pays 101 percent of fair.
Cleveland Guardians moneyline at -179 is 1.9 percent under 1.59 fair value across four books with 62.9 percent implied probability. The Guardians won 5 of 8 and their last game 5-3. The book's price is at fair consensus.
Cincinnati Reds moneyline at +115 runs 4.8 percent under 2.26 fair value from four books with a 44.3 percent win probability. The Reds won their last game 6-4 at home where our 60-day record is 58 percent. The book's price is at fair.
Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline at -108 delivers 0.4 percent edge above 1.92 fair value across four books, with a 52 percent hit rate. The Pirates won 5 of 8 and beat Kansas City 8-5 last time. FanDuel pays 100 percent of fair.
Atlanta Braves moneyline at -110 is 3.4 percent under fair value of 2.07 across four books. The Braves won 5 of 8 with a 6-2 win last time, though starting pitcher Grant Holmes has an ERA of 3.49 against an xFIP of 4.56. The book's price is at fair consensus.
Washington Nationals moneyline at +111 is priced 3.8 percent under fair value of 2.19 from four books with a 45.6 percent hit rate. The Nationals won 5 of 8 and beat their opponent 9-1 in the last game, but the price reflects fair across the slate.
The book's 1.57 price falls shy of the 1.59 fair line from two sources, yielding minus-1% EV at a 63.1% hit rate. Vasco da Gama won its last game 2-1.
BetMGM's 2.4 is priced at fair value from two books, with the 41.4% hit rate implying no advantage. Charlotte FC won four of five recent matches while D.C. United won two of four.
BetMGM offers 1.67 against a 1.66 fair line from two books, yielding a negligible 0.4% edge. The 60.1% hit rate supports the pricing. St. Louis City SC won its last match 4-2.
New York Yankees moneyline at -132 offers 0.8 percent edge over 1.75 fair value built from four books, with a 57.3 percent win probability. The Yankees won 7 of 8 including a 9-2 victory last game. FanDuel pays 101 percent of fair.
San Diego Padres moneyline at -152 sits 3 percent under fair value of 1.71 across four books. The Padres won 7 of 8 and their last game 8-2, and our record on MLB home matchups over 60 days is 58 percent. The book's price is at fair.
BetMGM's 1.95 matches the fair line from two books exactly, with zero edge. Colorado Rapids won five of its last seven matches while Seattle won none of four, and Colorado won 1-0 most recently.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
Three separate clusters diversify opinion risk, with a 21.6% hit rate and 3.7% EV paying 104% of fair value across three independent match outcomes.
Two clusters back distinct match winners, offering a stronger 36.9% hit rate and 3.6% EV at 104% of fair price, balancing reasonable hit chance with value.
