Last 30 days · 269 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 139–122
Every pick published, placed or not.13 picks · 7 hit · CLV +0.3 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
Baltimore Orioles at -120 prices to 97 percent of the fair -120 line across four books, implying a 52.9 percent win probability. Our record on MLB home moneylines over 60 days is 169-114 (60 percent). The book's price is at fair.
Philadelphia Phillies at -139 prices to 97 percent of the fair -139 line from four books, implying a 56.7 percent win probability. Zack Wheeler's 21.9 percent K-BB rate anchors the staff, and our record on MLB home moneylines over 60 days stands at 169-114 (60 percent). The book's price is at fair.
Pittsburgh Pirates at -164 sits at 99 percent of the fair -163 line built from four books, pricing a 61.4 percent hit rate. The line has moved 3.8 points in the Pirates' favor since the opening, and Jared Jones brings a 20.5 percent K-BB rate into the matchup. The book's price is at fair.
Detroit Tigers at -154 sits at 97 percent of the fair -154 line from four sources, pricing a 58.6 percent hit rate. Our record on MLB home moneylines over 60 days is 169-114 (60 percent), and the Tigers won their last game 9-2. The book's price is at fair.
Tampa Bay Rays at +112 prices to 97 percent of the fair +119 line across four books, implying a 45.6 percent win probability. The Rays have won seven of their last eight games and drew Rasmussen, who carries a 20.8 percent K-BB rate. The book's price is at fair.
Washington Mystics spread at -14.5 sits at fair with two books in agreement and a 51.8% implied hit rate. The Mystics own a net rating advantage of 27.0 points over the last eight games against Connecticut's deficit, and covered this spread in their most recent matchup.
Minnesota Lynx spread at -1.5 is priced at 95% of fair according to two sources, with a 47.9% hit rate. The Lynx covered this spread last game, though they face a net rating disadvantage of 4.3 points over their last eight contests.
Total points under 187.5 between Minnesota and Indiana is priced at 95% of fair, implying a 49.9% hit rate. The Lynx went under this total in seven of their last eight games, with expected scoring of 179.9 points versus the 187.5 line.
Arizona Diamondbacks at -192 sits at 97 percent of the fair -192 line from four sources, pricing a 63.9 percent hit rate. The Diamondbacks have won four of eight while Colorado has won two of eight; Arizona also won its last game 8-4. The book's price is at fair.
Seattle Mariners at -130 prices to 98 percent of the fair -130 line built from four books, implying a 55.2 percent win probability. Logan Gilbert has a 20.8 percent K-BB rate, and our 60-day home moneyline record is 169-114 (60 percent). The book's price is at fair.
Golden State Valkyries total under 157.5 is priced at 95% of fair across two books, implying a 50% hit rate. The Valkyries have gone under this number in all eight of their last eight games, though quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Los Angeles at Las Vegas Under 178.5 is priced at -105, just under fair value of 2.06 across two books. The Sparks project to 172.4 points based on recent output and defensive exposure, with the under cashing in 6 of their last 8 games. A 48.5 percent hit rate and -5.5 percent edge reflects the book's modest discount to fair.
Los Angeles Dodgers at -120 sits at 99 percent of the fair -120 line from four sources, pricing a 53.9 percent hit rate. Yoshinobu Yamamoto carries a 20.1 percent K-BB rate and the line has drifted 3.5 points in the Dodgers' direction since opening. The book's price is at fair, though Yamamoto's 0.217 BABIP on 438 balls in play suggests borrowed time.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
No parlays in this view.
