Last 30 days · 269 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 139–122
Every pick published, placed or not.3 picks · 1 hit · CLV +0.9 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
The draw at 4.0 decimal carries 4.2% EV against a 3.84 fair line, with a 26% implied hit rate. The book pays 104% of fair, a smaller premium than the first pick, but over twice as likely to land.
Willem II at 15.0 decimal offers 11.5% EV over the 13.46 fair line, implying a 7.4% win probability. The book pays 111% of fair value, creating a modest edge on a low-probability outcome.
Under 8.5 runs at 2.04 decimal offers +3% EV against a 50.5% fair hit rate. FanDuel prices at 103% of fair value, a modest edge where the sharp consensus expects roughly even odds on staying below the total.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
No parlays in this view.
