Last 30 days · 269 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 139–122
Every pick published, placed or not.15 picks · 9 hit · CLV +1.4 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
Celta Vigo to win at 1.89 is priced at fair value of 1.90 from two books. The book pays 99% of fair with a 52.6% hit rate, placing this on the slate through consensus but without an edge.
Sparta Prague to win at 1.67 is priced below the fair 1.70 from two books. The book pays 98% of fair with a 58.9% hit rate; the price is at or under fair by the estimate.
Over 8.5 runs at -115 shows 47.4% hit rate and sits 2% above the two-book fair of 2.11, making it the only pick with positive EV. Caesars pays 102 cents per fair dollar, a rare premium to consensus on this total.
Aston Villa to win at 2.25 is priced below the fair 2.28 from two books. The book pays 99% of fair with a 43.9% hit rate; the price is at or under fair by consensus.
Dinamo Zagreb to win at 1.89 sits just below the fair 1.91 from two books. At 99% of fair value and a 52.3% hit rate, the price is at or under fair by the composite estimate.
Rennes to win at 1.89 is priced just above the fair line of 1.87 from two books, offering a small 0.9% edge. The 53.4% hit rate suggests slim but present value on this road match.
Toronto at -118 prices to 53.4% per four-book consensus but sits 1.2% below fair value at 1.87 decimal. The book pays 99 cents per fair dollar, a razor-thin miss on what four sources agree is the true line.
Athletic Bilbao to win at 2.20 is priced below the fair 2.24 from two books. At 98% of fair and a 44.7% hit rate, the price is at or under fair value.
Botafogo to win at 1.74 is priced below the fair 1.77 built from two sources. At 98% of fair and a 56.6% hit rate, the price sits at or under fair value.
Tampa Bay at -189 carries a 63.2% win probability but is 3.4% below the four-book fair of 1.58. At 97% of fair value, the heavy favorite is underpriced relative to consensus.
Cincinnati at +180 is priced 2.9% below fair value of 2.88 from four books, implying a 34.7% hit rate. The book pays 97 cents per fair dollar across a thin consensus on an underdog matchup.
Washington at +170 carries a 36.5% implied win probability versus a fair line of 2.74 built from four books. At 99% of fair value, the price is essentially at consensus despite a 1.4% EV shortfall.
Baltimore at +120 is priced to 44% against a 2.27 fair line from four sources, running 3.3% below true value. The book pays 97 cents per fair dollar on this underdog play.
Houston at -141 implies 56.7% to win but sits 3.1% under the fair line of 1.77 built by four books. At 97% of fair, Caesars' price is below consensus despite the favorite status.
Miami at +115 implies 44.8% to win versus a 2.23 fair line from four books, falling 3.6% short of true value. The book pays 96 cents per fair dollar on this underdog selection.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
Two separate clusters covering unrelated games, 25.3% hit rate, pays 101% of fair value with the highest EV among candidates, offering fair odds relative to true probability.
Two independent clusters, 28.1% hit rate, pays 100% of fair value with slight positive EV - solid combination of decent hit probability and fair pricing.
