Last 30 days · 269 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 139–122
Every pick published, placed or not.24 picks · 2 hit · CLV +0.8 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
Toronto at -1.5 offers 6% positive expected value with a 37.9% hit rate implied by the fair line. FanDuel pays 106% of what sharps price the outcome, creating a modest edge on the day's highest-value candidate.
Fanatics offers 16.0 on Franklin's anytime TD against a 10.63 fair line, implying a 9.4 percent hit rate. The book pays 151 percent of fair value, delivering 50.6 percent EV. This ranks first among all legs today.
Under 36.5 offers a 31.2% hit rate with 2.9% edge, paying 103% of fair value. Despite 12 players listed out or doubtful, the setup rewards the minority outcome at positive expected value from the book's inflated pricing.
DraftKings prices Kenneth Walker III over 6.5 receptions at 12.8 versus an 8.62 fair line, implying 11.6 percent probability. At 149 percent of fair and 48.5 percent EV, this ranks second.
Fanatics offers 26.0 on Wiley's anytime TD against a 18.65 fair line. The 5.4 percent hit rate carries 39.4 percent EV and 139 percent of fair, ranking third.
Fanatics prices Lil'Jordan Humphrey's anytime TD at 18.0 versus 13.38 fair. The 7.5 percent implied probability generates 34.5 percent EV at 135 percent of fair value.
DraftKings offers 15.0 on Jalen Royals's anytime TD versus a 12.17 fair line. At 8.2 percent probability and 123 percent of fair, this delivers 23.3 percent EV.
DraftKings prices Bo Nix over 299.5 passing yards at 7.8 against a 6.66 fair line. The 15 percent hit rate implies 17.2 percent EV at 117 percent of fair.
Fanatics offers 11.5 on Adam Trautman's anytime TD against 9.95 fair. The 10 percent implied probability generates 15.6 percent EV at 116 percent of fair value.
DraftKings prices Kenneth Walker III over 119.5 rush yards at 9.9 versus 8.62 fair. At 11.6 percent probability and 115 percent of fair, this delivers 14.9 percent EV.
DraftKings offers 11.0 on Noah Gray's anytime TD against 9.6 fair. The 10.4 percent hit rate generates 14.6 percent EV at 115 percent of fair value.
Fanatics prices Jonah Coleman's anytime TD at 10.0 versus 9.02 fair. At 11.1 percent probability and 111 percent of fair, this delivers 10.9 percent EV.
DraftKings offers 7.6 on Patrick Mahomes over 299.5 passing yards against 6.86 fair. The 14.6 percent hit rate generates 10.7 percent EV at 111 percent of fair value.
FanDuel prices Bo Nix over 39.5 rush yards at 7.8 versus 7.16 fair. At 14 percent probability and 109 percent of fair, this delivers 8.9 percent EV.
DraftKings offers 13.0 on Brashard Smith's anytime TD against 11.95 fair. The 8.4 percent hit rate generates 8.8 percent EV at 109 percent of fair value.
Fanatics prices Denver -13.5 at 8.0 versus 7.38 fair. The 13.6 percent hit rate generates 8.5 percent EV at 108 percent of fair value.
Fanatics offers 6.0 on Pat Bryant's anytime TD against 5.57 fair. The 18 percent implied probability generates 7.7 percent EV at 108 percent of fair.
Fanatics prices RJ Harvey's anytime TD at 4.4 versus 4.11 fair. At 24.3 percent probability and 107 percent of fair, this delivers 6.9 percent EV.
DraftKings offers 8.0 on Justin Fields's anytime TD against 7.49 fair. The 13.3 percent hit rate generates 6.8 percent EV at 107 percent of fair value.
DraftKings prices Adam Trautman under 0.5 receptions at 2.86 versus 2.7 fair. At 37.1 percent probability and 106 percent of fair, this delivers 6.1 percent EV.
Fanatics offers 7.5 on Tyquan Thornton's anytime TD against 7.07 fair. The 14.1 percent hit rate generates 6.1 percent EV at 106 percent of fair value.
DraftKings prices Evan Engram's anytime TD at 6.5 versus 6.18 fair. At 16.2 percent probability and 105 percent of fair, this delivers 5.2 percent EV.
Colorado moneyline delivers 2.2% expected value with a 39.6% implied hit rate. Caesars pays 102% of the fair line, providing the lowest edge among today's candidates.
Arizona at -1.5 carries 3.6% expected value with a 38.7% implied hit rate. The book pays 104% of fair value, ranking second in the day's EV order.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
Two independent clusters combine for 15.5% EV at 115% of fair value, with a 5.3% hit rate reflecting the real long-shot nature of stacking these props together.
Two-cluster combination delivering 8.1% EV at 108% of fair value, with a 5.2% hit rate that sits between the higher-EV and higher-hit-rate options on this board.
Highest hit rate at 14% among these options, still paying 105% of fair price with positive 5.2% EV, built from two separate clusters rather than one repeated view.
