Last 30 days · 282 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 146–127
Every pick published, placed or not.15 picks · 8 hit · CLV +0.9 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
Qingdao West Coast FC at 2.35 prices at fair 2.39, paying 98% of fair value. The line has moved 6.0 points in our direction since opening, though the 41.8% hit rate indicates no edge at current price.
Torku Konyaspor at 2.60 sits 1.1% above fair from two books. The line has moved 4.3 points in our favor since opening. Our record on Turkey Super League home three-way draws 63% over 60 days, supporting the 38.9% hit rate.
CD Castellón at 2.25 prices below fair 2.30, paying 98% of fair. The 43.4% hit band reflects the matchup, with Castellón winning six straight while the opponent won just one of six, yet our away record in La Liga 2 stands at 44%.
Hammarby IF at 1.77 prices below fair 1.82, paying 97% of fair value. Hammarby won four of its last five with a 1-0 victory most recently, implied by the 54.9% hit rate, but the price remains under fair.
Almería at 1.65 prices below fair 1.68, paying 98% of fair value. The hit band implies 59.6% success. Almería won six of its last eight with a 2-1 victory last time, though the price undervalues this matchup.
Manchester City at 2.30 prices below fair 2.34, paying 98% of fair. The 42.7% hit rate reflects expected performance, with Manchester City up 0.77 npxGD over the last 10 league matches, yet recent scoring output runs 2.30 points a match against a 1.80 expected.
Draw at 3.30 offers 1.1% EV against a 3.26 fair from two books. Our 60-day Serie B draw record stands at 51%, matching the 30.6% hit probability, though all quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Palmeiras at 1.65 prices below fair 1.70, paying 97% of fair. The 58.7% hit rate reflects recent form with three wins in four games against an opponent at zero of seven, and a 79% home record in Brazil Série A over 60 days, though the line has moved 5.5 points against us since opening.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
Two independent clusters combine a 28.5% hit rate with positive EV of 2.4% and a 102% pays-of-fair, suggesting the priced odds slightly exceed fair value while keeping a reasonable chance of both legs landing.
