Last 30 days · 282 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 146–127
Every pick published, placed or not.15 picks · 8 hit · CLV +0.9 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
New England Patriots moneyline at -196 is priced 4% under fair value across four books, with a 63.6% hit rate and the book paying 96% of fair. New England's pass EPA edge of 0.21 per dropback over eight games is the primary factor. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Seattle Seahawks moneyline at -161 prices at fair value across four books with a 61.5% hit rate. The book pays exactly fair. Quotes are all older than 30 minutes. Pass EPA favors San Francisco by 0.09 per dropback in the last eight games.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
No parlays in this view.
