Last 30 days · 282 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 146–127
Every pick published, placed or not.15 picks · 3 hit · CLV +0.4 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
Pohang Steelers at 2.80 sits 7.2 percent below fair of 3.02 built from two books, paying 93 percent of fair. The line has moved in Pohang's favor by 5.1 points since opening, though quotes are more than 30 minutes old.
Zhejiang at 2.50 is priced 3.2 percent below fair of 2.58 from two books with a 38.7 percent hit rate. Zhejiang won its last match 4-1, though all quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Aldosivi Mar del Plata at 2.50 is 6.4 percent below fair of 2.67 across two sources, paying 94 percent of fair value. Our record on Primera División Argentina home favorites over 60 days is 87 percent. Aldosivi won its last match 1-0, though quotes are more than 30 minutes old.
Gimnasia La Plata at 1.91 is priced 3.7 percent below fair of 1.98 built from two books. The 50.4 percent hit rate implies near parity. Our record on Primera División Argentina home favorites over 60 days stands at 87 percent, though quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Boca Juniors at 2.60 is priced 6 percent below fair of 2.77 from two books with a 36.2 percent implied hit rate. The side won its last match 3-0, though all quotes are older than 30 minutes.
The Under 59.5 on FanDuel sits at -106, matching near-fair odds built from two books with a 50.6 percent hit rate. Both teams' most recent games settled under this total, supporting the thesis. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Rangers +1.5 at -208 prices just 0.8% below fair from three sources at a 67% hit rate. New York covered this spread last game with a 5-2 win. All quotes older than 30 minutes.
Washington at -139 sits 4.3% below fair value across three books, pricing the Capitals at 55.6% implied. The home record on this matchup runs 65% over 60 days. All quotes older than 30 minutes.
Detroit at -139 sits 1.9% below fair across three books, pricing the Red Wings at a 57% hit rate. The Wings won their last outing 5-3 and our home record stands at 65% over 60 days. All quotes older than 30 minutes.
Atlanta Dream at +3 is priced at fair across two books, with a 50.9% hit rate and minimal 0.3% edge. The Dream covered the number in eight of their last eight games and posted a net rating 13.1 points better than their season average, though all quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Winnipeg at -118 prices 3.1% below fair from three sources at a 52.4% hit rate. The Jets won their last game 3-2 and carry a 65% home record over 60 days. All quotes older than 30 minutes.
San Jose State sits at -175 on FanDuel, matching the fair line built from four books and implying a 63.4 percent hit rate. The Spartans won four of their last six games and beat Wyoming 20-16 most recently. Every quote is older than 30 minutes and the line has moved against fair by 3.8 points since opening.
The Over 41.5 prices at -105 on FanDuel against a two-book fair line, implying a 50.2 percent hit rate and paying 98 percent of fair. Both teams went over 41.5 in their last games, supporting the total. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Iowa State plus 10.5 prices at -110 on Fanatics against a 50 percent fair line from two books, paying 96 percent of fair value. The Cyclones covered 10.5 last game, but SP+ expects BYU to win by 15.4 points at home, making the current line generous to Iowa State. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Yokohama F Marinos at 2.95 sits 5.8 percent below fair of 3.13 across two books, paying 94 percent of fair value. The 31.9 percent hit rate reflects the underdog price. Yokohama won four of its last five matches including a 2-0 victory last time out.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
Two independent clusters, hit rate 26.3% with payout slightly above fair value at 101% of fair and modest positive EV of 1.3%, offering a reasonable blend of coverage and value.
