Last 30 days · 282 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 146–127
Every pick published, placed or not.12 picks · 5 hit · CLV -0.2 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
Atlanta is priced at 96 pct of fair value with four books in agreement on the 49.7 pct hit rate. Chris Sale's 26.1 pct strikeout-to-walk rate supports the underlying probability. The book's price is modestly under fair.
Mookie Betts Under 1.5 Total Bases prices at 1.57 against a 1.66 fair built from three books, implying a 60% hit rate. BetMGM pays 94% of fair value here. The line has held steady across three straight games despite recent production shifting sharply, with a 20% rate over the last five games against a 50% season average.
Milwaukee is priced at 98 pct of fair value after winning 7 of its last 8 games compared to San Diego's 5 of 8 over the same span. Four books agree on the fair line, implying a 45.4 pct hit rate. The book's price is at fair with a slight negative edge.
Both teams are combining for 10.3 runs per game over the last 14 days, supporting an over total at 99 pct of fair. Two books built the fair line, which implies a 52.4 pct probability. The book's price is at fair value.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
No parlays in this view.
