The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
Philadelphia FlyersatTampa Bay LightningNHL4:09 PM· 2 picks
DraftKings-1.3%NHLHitMid
-1921.52
✓Tampa Bay Lightning Moneyline
Tampa Bay Lightning won its last game 3-1
Fair from 3
-185
Hit
64.9%
Pays of Fair
99%
Closed
-217
CLV
+2.7 pts
Tampa Bay's price of -192 is 1% under a fair line of -194 built from three books, with a 64.9% hit rate. The Lightning won their last game 3-1. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
PK-PSRAKPublished 17d ago
BetMGM-1.4%NHLMissedMid
-1451.69
✕Philadelphia Flyers Spread +1.5
Philadelphia Flyers covered 1.5 last game (2-3)
Fair from 3
-141
Hit
58.3%
Pays of Fair
99%
Closed
-135
CLV
-1.7 pts
Context · MediumContext: Probable goalie change: Joseph Woll expected to start for Flyers, not Dan Vladar per NBC Sports Philadelphia thespread.com
Philadelphia's +1.5 spread at -145 is 1.4% under fair at -143 built from three books, with a 58.3% hit rate. The Flyers covered 1.5 in their last game, winning 2-3.
Pittsburgh Penguins won its last game 6-5Opponent on the second night of a back-to-back (rested 2 days)
Fair from 3
-156
Hit
61.0%
Pays of Fair
97%
Closed
-179
CLV
+1.2 pts
Pittsburgh's price of -169 is 3.1% under a fair line of -164 built from three books, with a 61% hit rate. The Penguins won 6-5 in their last game. Winnipeg is on the second night of a back-to-back having rested 2 days prior.
PK-XWT4GPublished 17d ago
FanDuel-1.5%NHLHitMid
-1671.60
✓Winnipeg Jets Spread +1.5
Winnipeg Jets covered 1.5 last game (3-2)
Fair from 3
-161
Hit
61.6%
Pays of Fair
99%
Closed
-175
CLV
+1.2 pts
Winnipeg's +1.5 spread at -167 is 1.5% under fair at -162 built from three books, with a 61.6% hit rate. The Jets covered 1.5 in their last game, winning 3-2. Winnipeg is on the second night of a back-to-back with Pittsburgh rested 2 days prior.
PK-YWN9APublished 17d ago
Ottawa SenatorsatBoston BruinsNHL4:42 PM· 2 picks
Caesars-1.4%NHLHitMid
-1091.92
✓Ottawa Senators Moneyline
Ottawa Senators won its last game 3-2
Fair from 3
-105
Hit
51.3%
Pays of Fair
99%
Closed
-114
CLV
+1.1 pts
Context · MediumContext: Jake Sanderson reaggravated injury in game one, left first period; status uncertain for tonight. nhl.com
Ottawa's price of -109 is 1.4% under fair at -105 built from three books, with a 51.3% hit rate. The Senators won 3-2 in their last game. Our record on NHL road h2h over 60 days is 16-20 (44%).
PK-KCZK9Published 17d ago
BetMGM-5.3%NHLHitMid
-1201.83
✓Total Goals Under 6
Both teams' last games went under 6
Fair from 2
-108
Hit
51.7%
Pays of Fair
95%
Closed
-120
CLV
+0.0 pts
Context · MediumContext: Jake Sanderson reaggravated injury in game one, left first period; status uncertain for tonight. nhl.com
Under 6 goals at -120 is 5.3% under fair at -125 built from two books, with a 51.7% hit rate. Both teams' last games finished under 6 total goals.
PK-RPCR4Published 17d ago
San Jose SharksatDallas StarsNHL5:08 PM· 2 picks
DraftKings-3.0%NHLMissedMid
+1452.45
✕San Jose Sharks Moneyline
San Jose Sharks won 2 of last 2; opponent 0 of 2San Jose Sharks won its last game 5-4
Fair from 3
+153
Hit
39.6%
Pays of Fair
97%
Closed
+170
CLV
-3.8 pts
San Jose's price of +145 is 3% under fair at +153 built from three books, with a 39.6% hit rate. The Sharks won 2 of their last 2 games while Dallas won 0 of 2. Our record on NHL road h2h over 60 days is 16-20 (44%).
PK-SX2JJPublished 17d ago
FanDuel-1.7%NHLMissedMid
-1671.60
✕San Jose Sharks Spread +1.5
San Jose Sharks covered 1.5 last game (5-4)
Fair from 3
-159
Hit
61.4%
Pays of Fair
98%
Closed
-147
CLV
-3.0 pts
San Jose's +1.5 spread at -167 is 1.7% under fair at -163 built from three books, with a 61.4% hit rate. The Sharks covered 1.5 in their last game, winning 5-4.
PK-CRBERPublished 17d ago
Parlays
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.