Last 30 days · 282 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 146–127
Every pick published, placed or not.15 picks · 8 hit · CLV -0.2 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
Steven Kwan Total Bases Under 1.5 is priced at -200, just 1 percent below fair value built from three books at 1.52 decimal odds. The 66 percent hit rate implies a tight market with minimal edge at -1.1 percent EV. Recent results show Kwan went under this total on Oct 3 with zero total bases.
Chicago White Sox moneyline at 2.34 is priced at 96 percent of fair value across four books, with a 41.2 percent hit rate. The book's price is at or under fair despite the negative 3.7 percent EV, supported by agreement across four books and the recent 3-0 win. Our record on MLB road moneylines over 60 days stands at 173-222 for 44 percent.
Tampa Bay Rays moneyline at 2.11 is priced at 97 percent of fair value across four books, with a 46 percent hit rate implying a slight negative edge of 2.9 percent. Four books agree on the 2.17 fair line. The Rays won their last game 1-0.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
No parlays in this view.
