Last 30 days · 282 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 146–127
Every pick published, placed or not.15 picks · 8 hit · CLV +1.5 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
Atlanta Dream moneyline priced at -161 against a -165 fair built from four books. The Dream owns a plus-4.8 net rating edge over the last eight games and won its most recent contest decisively. At 60.6% hit rate, Caesars pays 98% of fair value, leaving minimal edge.
Over 161.5 points priced at -106 against a -202 fair from three books. Las Vegas Aces have gone over this total in eight straight games, with expected output of 170.1 points last eight games. Golden State went under in its last game, a caution against the over. FanDuel pays 96% of fair, with a 49.5% hit rate and negative EV.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
Two independent clusters combine a moneyline and a totals outcome, offering 119% of fair value with an 18.6% EV edge. A 21.2% hit rate reflects a real but modest chance, not a guaranteed outcome, while the multi-cluster structure avoids over-weighting one opinion.
