Last 30 days · 282 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 146–127
Every pick published, placed or not.15 picks · 8 hit · CLV +1.5 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
Total Under 48.5 at 1.88 decimal offers 7.2% EV against a 1.75 fair from two books, paying 107% of fair. The line has moved 4.8 points in the under's favor since the opening fair. All quotes are older than 30 minutes, and Washington's last game exceeded this total.
Washington Commanders at +188 prices at 2.88 decimal against a 2.91 fair line from four books. The Commanders show a +0.15 pass EPA edge per dropback over the last eight games and won their previous contest 33-31. Four books agree on the fair, implying 34.4% win probability, though the book's price sits 0.9% under fair.
Chicago Bears at -179 prices at 1.56 decimal against a 1.57 fair line built from four books. The Bears own a +0.61 pass EPA edge per dropback over their last eight games and won their most recent matchup 27-7. Four books agree on the fair, implying a 63.8% win probability, though the book's price sits 0.5% under fair value.
New York Giants at +118 price 2.18 decimal against a 2.25 fair from four books. The Giants show a +0.31 pass EPA edge per dropback over the last eight games and won their recent matchup 12-7. Four books agree on the fair, implying 44.4% win probability, though the book's price sits 3.2% under fair.
Las Vegas Raiders at +190 price 2.9 decimal against a 3.01 fair from four books. The Raiders won their last game 35-27. Four books agree on the fair, implying 33.2% win probability, though the book's price sits 3.8% under fair.
Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 at 1.95 decimal prices at fair against a 1.97 fair from three books. The Chiefs covered -4.5 in their last game with a 24-10 win. Three books agree on the fair, implying 50.7% cover probability. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
San Francisco 49ers at -145 prices at 1.69 decimal against a 1.74 fair from four books. The 49ers own a +0.08 pass EPA edge per dropback over their last eight games and won their most recent game 36-30. Four books agree on the fair, implying 57.4% win probability, though the book's price sits 3.1% under fair.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
Two independent clusters combine a moneyline and a totals outcome, offering 119% of fair value with an 18.6% EV edge. A 21.2% hit rate reflects a real but modest chance, not a guaranteed outcome, while the multi-cluster structure avoids over-weighting one opinion.
