Last 30 days · 269 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 139–122
Every pick published, placed or not.15 picks · 9 hit · CLV +1.1 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
DraftKings prices Columbus at 1.93 against a 2.00 fair line from three books, with the book paying 96% of fair. The 49.9% hit rate and three-book agreement brought it to the slate despite negative EV and older quotes.
DraftKings offers Seattle at 2.80 against a 2.89 fair line from three books. The book's price sits at 97% of fair value with negative EV. Three books agree, and Seattle's 6-1 last game result is already in the price.
Caesars offers the over 6.5 at 1.95 against a 1.96 fair line from two books. The line has moved 3.1 points in this pick's favor since opening, and both teams went over 6.5 in their last games. The book's price sits at fair value with minimal EV.
DraftKings prices Pittsburgh at 2.10 against a 2.16 fair line from three books, which puts the book's price below fair value at 97 pence per dollar. The 46.4% hit rate and three-book agreement placed it on the slate despite negative EV.
Caesars offers 2.27 against a 2.19 fair line built from two books, yielding 3.7% EV. The 45.7% hit rate sits in a modest range. Both teams' last games went under 5.5, supporting the total. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
DraftKings offers Minnesota at 1.52 against a 1.55 fair line from two books, paying 98% of fair. The 64.6% hit rate reflects Minnesota's strength, and Boston faces a back-to-back after playing two days prior. Three books agree despite negative EV.
BetMGM prices San Jose at 1.87 against a 1.93 fair line built from three books, paying 97% of fair. The 51.8% hit rate and three-book consensus placed this on the slate, though EV is negative.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
Two independent clusters cover separate games, pricing at 103% of fair with positive EV of 3.4% and a 23.4% hit rate, offering genuine edge without relying on a single correlated view.
