Last 30 days · 269 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 139–122
Every pick published, placed or not.4 picks · 2 hit · CLV -1.8 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
Philadelphia moneyline at -204 sits 4% under fair value of -206 across four books, with a 65.2% hit rate implying 3% positive EV. The Eagles show a +0.23 pass EPA edge over their last eight games, offsetting Chicago's defensive advantage in passing situations.
Philadelphia -3.5 at -105 is priced 2% under fair across two books, with a 50.5% hit rate at breakeven EV. The Eagles' +0.23 pass EPA edge over eight games supports the spread, though Chicago's pass defense rates above average at +0.12 EPA allowed per dropback.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
Two independent clusters combine for a 46.3% EV with a 42.7% hit rate, paying 146% of fair value. The legs come from separate games, so this isn't the same opinion priced twice.
