Last 30 days · 269 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 139–122
Every pick published, placed or not.15 picks · 4 hit · CLV -0.8 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
Cincinnati Bengals moneyline at -185 prices 62.7% implied probability against a 1.60 fair line from four books. The book pays 97% of fair. Bengals showed a +0.21 pass EPA edge per dropback over the last eight games and won their last game 20-6. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Carolina Panthers moneyline at -143 prices 57.2% implied probability against a 1.75 fair line from four books. Panthers posted a +0.22 pass EPA edge per dropback and dominated their last game 34-3. The book pays 97% of fair. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Minnesota Vikings moneyline at -120 prices 52.3% implied probability against a 1.91 fair line built from four books. Vikings own a +0.35 pass EPA edge per dropback and have won their last two games while Tampa Bay is 0-2. The book pays 96% of fair. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
New Orleans Saints moneyline at -172 prices 61.6% implied probability against a 1.62 fair line from four books. Saints show a +0.41 pass EPA edge per dropback and won their last game 24-17. The book pays 97% of fair. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Los Angeles Rams moneyline at -130 prices 54.7% implied probability against a 1.83 fair line built from four books. The book pays 97% of fair value. Rams dominated their last game 28-6. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Los Angeles Rams spread -2.5 at -105 prices 48.6% implied probability against a 2.06 fair line built from three books. The book pays 95% of fair value. Rams covered -2.5 in their last game, winning 28-6. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
Two independent clusters, 43.8% hit rate and 32.8% EV with payout at 133% of fair price, a solid combination of a real chance to hit and value above fair odds.
