Last 30 days · 269 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 139–122
Every pick published, placed or not.15 picks · 7 hit · CLV +0.3 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
Nationals moneyline at 2.16 falls short of the 2.22 fair line from four books, offering 45% hit rate at 97% of value. Washington just took down New York 7-6 despite sitting as a significant underdog here.
Blue Jays moneyline sits at 1.63 against 1.67 fair from four books, pricing 59.9% and paying 98% of value. Toronto just won 6-5 though Blue Jays starter Trey Yesavage runs with ERA 3.67 against xFIP 4.57, suggesting potential regression.
Guardians moneyline prices 54% at 1.82 from the 1.85 fair line agreed across four books. Cleveland won 6 of 8 while Kansas City took just 2, but Caesars discount of 2% to fair leaves minimal edge.
White Sox moneyline at 1.43 prices 67.3% probability but sits 3.8% below the 1.49 fair from four books. Chicago won 6 of last 8 and just beat Colorado 6-1, though the book pays only 96% of fair value.
Brewers moneyline at 1.53 sits just shy of the 1.58 fair from four books, pricing 63.2% probability. Milwaukee won 6 of last 8 while St. Louis won just 2, but the book's price at 97% of fair means no edge here.
Diamondbacks moneyline offers plus-money at 2.06 against a 2.03 fair line from three books, giving 1.6% EV. Arizona just beat San Diego 11-4 and remains a slight underdog despite the matchup outcome.
Angels-Mariners total goes over 7.5 in 7 of Angels last 8 and 6 of Mariners last 8, supporting the 51.2% hit rate. Caesars at 1.92 is 2% below the 1.95 fair line built from three books, with Angels showing a 6-game streak on this side though the market implies 52%.
Angels moneyline at 2.66 trails the 2.73 fair from four books by 2.5%, pricing 36.6% probability. Los Angeles just beat Seattle 7-5 as a clear underdog in this spot.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
Two independent clusters back these favorites, with a 25.5% hit rate and payout matching fair price at 100% of fair, giving a slight positive EV of 0.1% with no shared bias between the two picks.
