Last 30 days · 269 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 139–122
Every pick published, placed or not.15 picks · 11 hit · CLV +1.5 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
SC Fortuna Köln at +130 sits at 39.6% probability against a 2.53 fair line from two sources, paying 91% of fair. The price is at fair value with no edge; all quotes are older than 30 minutes. Our record on 3. Liga away h2h play stands at 23-16 across 60 matches.
Girona FC at -189 carries a 63.7% hit rate against a fair line of 1.57 built from two books. The moneyline price pays 97% of fair value, leaving minimal edge. Two sources agree on the fair, and Girona won its last match 2-1.
Vila Nova is at -135 on DraftKings against a fair line of 1.79 built from two sources. The 55.8% hit rate implies 1.79 decimal value, but the book's 1.74 price sits 2.9% below fair and pays 97% of it. Vila Nova won 5 of its last 6 while Londrina won 1 of 6, yet the line has moved against the pick by 5.5 points since opening. Our record on Brazil Série B home moneylines stands at 40% over 60 matchups.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
No parlays in this view.
