Last 30 days · 269 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 139–122
Every pick published, placed or not.15 picks · 11 hit · CLV +1.5 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
BetMGM at 1.80 offers 3.6% EV against a 1.74 fair built from 2 books, implying a 57.6% hit rate. Holmes has gone under 4.5 strikeouts in 5 of his last 10 outings, a 50% rate against the 56% the line assumes. All quotes are older than 30 minutes.
BetMGM at 1.83 sits 3.7% under a 1.90 fair from 4 books, placing the book's price at fair. The Cubs won their last game 2-1 and show a 52.6% implied hit rate.
BetMGM at 1.87 sits 4.9% under a 1.97 fair from 4 books, placing the book's price at or under fair. The Cubs won their last game 2-1. The line has moved against the Cubs by 3.7 points since opening at fair value.
BetMGM at 2.15 sits just 1.6% under a 2.18 fair from 3 books, placing the book's price at fair. The Nationals won 6 of 8 recently versus the Mets at 4 of 8, and took their last game 4-2.
Caesars at 1.57 sits 2% under a 1.60 fair from 4 books, placing the book's price at fair. The Brewers won 6 of 8 recently while the Cardinals managed only 3 of 8, and Milwaukee took its last game 5-1.
BetMGM prices the White Sox moneyline at 1.44, which sits 3.4% under fair at 1.49 from 4 books. The book's price is at fair value. The White Sox won 5 of 8 recently and took their last game 9-1 against a Rockies team that won just 2 of 8.
BetMGM at 1.95 sits 4.5% under a 2.04 fair from 4 books, placing the book's price at or under fair. The Twins won their last game 4-2, and starter Joe Ryan has a 20.6% K-BB rate across 588 batters faced.
BetMGM at 2.15 sits 3.4% under a 2.23 fair from 4 books, placing the book's price at fair. The Angels won their last game 6-4, and starter Reid Detmers carries a 22.0% K-BB rate over 718 batters faced.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
Two independent clusters combine a strikeout under and a spread pick, with a 28.6% hit rate and pays of fair at 100%, giving a modest but positive 0.5% EV without relying on one repeated opinion.
Two independent clusters combine a pitcher strikeout under with a moneyline pick, each priced near fair value, giving a 38.6% hit rate and slight positive EV. Chicago White Sox have won 5 of their last 8 games, supporting this leg's inclusion.
