Last 30 days · 269 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 139–122
Every pick published, placed or not.15 picks · 11 hit · CLV +1.5 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
Temple Owls Spread +3 prices at 97 percent of fair across two books. The fair implies a 49.7 percent hit rate. Temple covered this spread last game, 48-49. The book's price sits 3 percent under fair value. Caution: PPA shows a -0.21 per play efficiency edge favoring Army.
Northwestern Wildcats Spread +20.5 prices at 98 percent of fair across two books. The fair implies a 49.2 percent hit rate. Northwestern covered this spread last game, 41-7. The book's price sits 1.5 percent under fair value. Caution: PPA shows a -0.34 per play efficiency edge favoring Indiana.
Northwestern at Indiana total under 50 is priced at 1.91 against a fair line of 1.99 built from two books. The fair implies a 50.1 percent hit rate, though the book pays 96 percent of fair value, making this selection at or under fair. Both teams' last games stayed under 50 points.
Clemson Tigers Spread -1 prices at 97 percent of fair across two books. The fair implies a 50.6 percent hit rate. Clemson covered -1 last game, 28-20. The book's price sits 3.3 percent under fair value. Caution: PPA shows a -0.15 per play efficiency edge favoring California.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
Two independent clusters combine a strikeout under and a spread pick, with a 28.6% hit rate and pays of fair at 100%, giving a modest but positive 0.5% EV without relying on one repeated opinion.
