Last 30 days · 269 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 139–122
Every pick published, placed or not.12 picks · 5 hit · CLV +1.3 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
The book's price is at fair value; four books agree. St. Louis won 5-1 yesterday. The Cardinals are priced at 2.38 on DraftKings with a 40.5% hit rate and minus-3.6% EV.
Peters hit 9 of 10 under 1.5 total bases (90%) versus a 62% fair line built from two books. Caesars prices this at 1.61, paying 98% of fair with a 60.8% hit rate. He has stayed under in 8 straight games, though all quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Pasquantino hit 7 of 10 over 1.5 total bases (70%) versus a 42% fair line from two books. Caesars prices this at 2.36, paying 95% of fair with a 40.4% hit rate. He has gone over in 5 straight games, though all quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Lindor hit 8 of 10 under 1.5 total bases (80%) versus a 61% implied rate. Caesars prices this at 1.64 versus 1.68 fair from two books, paying 97% of fair with a 59.4% hit rate. The line has not moved in three games despite recent form dropping to 20% over the last five.
Seager went under yesterday with 0 total bases. Caesars prices under 1.5 at 1.67 versus 1.73 fair from two books, paying 96% of fair with a 57.7% hit rate. The line has not moved in three games while recent form dropped to 20% over the last five.
Arizona won 5 of 8 recent games to Colorado's 2 of 8. BetMGM prices the Diamondbacks at 1.53 versus a 1.58 fair from four books, paying 97% of fair with a 63.4% hit rate. Note Rodriguez is running hot with ERA 2.89 against xFIP 4.41.
Boston is priced at 1.74 on Caesars versus a 1.78 fair line from four books, paying 98% of fair with a 56.2% hit rate. The book's price is at fair value. Boston won 1-0 yesterday.
The book's price is at fair value; four books agree on the line. Yankees beat Tampa 9-2 yesterday. Schlittler carries a strong 25.0% K-BB rate but is running hot with ERA 1.94 against xFIP 2.86.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
Two independent clusters combine for 8.1% EV at 108% of fair value, with a 23.5% hit rate. Fever legs show a net rating edge of +9.0 over the last 8 games, supporting the spread leg's inclusion here.
