Last 30 days · 269 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 139–122
Every pick published, placed or not.15 picks · 6 hit · CLV +0.8 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
Washington at +126 sits 3 percent below the +134 fair from four books, with a 42.8 percent implied win rate. Jake Irvin's 4.72 xFIP trails his 5.51 ERA, pointing to some fortune in his actual results. The Nationals won 6 of 8 while St. Louis took 3 of 8, but the book prices this at fair value.
Colorado at +141 sits 4 percent below the +147 fair from three books, with a 40.5 percent win probability. The Rockies won 5-3 in their last game, and our home h2h record runs 60 percent over the past 60 days at 159-108. The price reflects fair value with minimal advantage.
Cleveland at -233 sits just below the -226 fair built from four books, implying a 68 percent hit rate. The Guardians took 5 of 8 lately while Oakland managed 3 of 8. Gavin Williams shows a 2.84 xFIP against his 3.78 ERA, suggesting some bad luck, though the book's price at 97 percent of fair offers minimal edge.
San Diego at -133 sits just under the -138 fair built from four books, suggesting a 55.7 percent hit rate. The Padres won 7 of 8 and just beat Miami 7-6, while our 60-day home h2h record stands at 159-108 (60 percent). The book prices this at 97 percent of fair.
Chicago at -116 sits below the -125 fair from four books, implying a 52.1 percent win probability. The White Sox won 3-1 in their last game, and our 60-day home record runs 159-108 (60 percent). The book's price at 97 percent of fair leaves no edge.
Milwaukee at -204 sits near the -217 fair price built from four books, implying a 65.1 percent hit rate. The Brewers won 6 of their last 8 games and took down Baltimore 1-0 last time out. Jacob Misiorowski's 31.6 percent K-BB rate stands strong over 636 batters faced, though the book's 97 percent of fair represents no edge.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
With three separate clusters spanning soccer, MLB, and Argentine football, this parlay carries a 37.6% hit rate and 24.7% EV at 125% of fair value, reflecting genuinely independent selections rather than correlated legs.
