Last 30 days · 269 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 139–122
Every pick published, placed or not.15 picks · 11 hit · CLV +1.5 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
The book's 1.83 price sits below fair at 1.84 from two sources, yielding minus-0.8% EV. Celta Vigo has six days since last play versus Racing's three-day rest advantage.
BetMGM's 1.98 is below the 2.0 fair line from two books, delivering minus-0.8% EV. Lazio won three consecutive matches while Venezia lost four straight.
The book's 1.44 price is at fair value from two sources, offering no edge at a 69.1% hit rate. Atletico Mineiro won its last game 3-1.
The book's 1.57 price falls shy of the 1.59 fair line from two sources, yielding minus-1% EV at a 63.1% hit rate. Vasco da Gama won its last game 2-1.
BetMGM's 2.4 is priced at fair value from two books, with the 41.4% hit rate implying no advantage. Charlotte FC won four of five recent matches while D.C. United won two of four.
BetMGM offers 1.67 against a 1.66 fair line from two books, yielding a negligible 0.4% edge. The 60.1% hit rate supports the pricing. St. Louis City SC won its last match 4-2.
BetMGM's 1.95 matches the fair line from two books exactly, with zero edge. Colorado Rapids won five of its last seven matches while Seattle won none of four, and Colorado won 1-0 most recently.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
Three separate clusters diversify opinion risk, with a 21.6% hit rate and 3.7% EV paying 104% of fair value across three independent match outcomes.
Two clusters back distinct match winners, offering a stronger 36.9% hit rate and 3.6% EV at 104% of fair price, balancing reasonable hit chance with value.
