Last 30 days · 269 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 139–122
Every pick published, placed or not.15 picks · 11 hit · CLV +1.5 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
Cleveland Guardians -1.5 at +128 carries 1 percent edge over 2.26 fair from three books. The Guardians covered the spread last game 5-3 at home, though our 60-day record on MLB spreads at home is only 41 percent. FanDuel pays 101 percent of fair.
Cleveland Guardians moneyline at -179 is 1.9 percent under 1.59 fair value across four books with 62.9 percent implied probability. The Guardians won 5 of 8 and their last game 5-3. The book's price is at fair consensus.
Cincinnati Reds moneyline at +115 runs 4.8 percent under 2.26 fair value from four books with a 44.3 percent win probability. The Reds won their last game 6-4 at home where our 60-day record is 58 percent. The book's price is at fair.
Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline at -108 delivers 0.4 percent edge above 1.92 fair value across four books, with a 52 percent hit rate. The Pirates won 5 of 8 and beat Kansas City 8-5 last time. FanDuel pays 100 percent of fair.
Atlanta Braves moneyline at -110 is 3.4 percent under fair value of 2.07 across four books. The Braves won 5 of 8 with a 6-2 win last time, though starting pitcher Grant Holmes has an ERA of 3.49 against an xFIP of 4.56. The book's price is at fair consensus.
Washington Nationals moneyline at +111 is priced 3.8 percent under fair value of 2.19 from four books with a 45.6 percent hit rate. The Nationals won 5 of 8 and beat their opponent 9-1 in the last game, but the price reflects fair across the slate.
New York Yankees moneyline at -132 offers 0.8 percent edge over 1.75 fair value built from four books, with a 57.3 percent win probability. The Yankees won 7 of 8 including a 9-2 victory last game. FanDuel pays 101 percent of fair.
San Diego Padres moneyline at -152 sits 3 percent under fair value of 1.71 across four books. The Padres won 7 of 8 and their last game 8-2, and our record on MLB home matchups over 60 days is 58 percent. The book's price is at fair.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
No parlays in this view.
