Last 30 days · 269 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 139–122
Every pick published, placed or not.15 picks · 9 hit · CLV +1.4 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
Celta Vigo to win at 1.89 is priced at fair value of 1.90 from two books. The book pays 99% of fair with a 52.6% hit rate, placing this on the slate through consensus but without an edge.
Sparta Prague to win at 1.67 is priced below the fair 1.70 from two books. The book pays 98% of fair with a 58.9% hit rate; the price is at or under fair by the estimate.
Aston Villa to win at 2.25 is priced below the fair 2.28 from two books. The book pays 99% of fair with a 43.9% hit rate; the price is at or under fair by consensus.
Dinamo Zagreb to win at 1.89 sits just below the fair 1.91 from two books. At 99% of fair value and a 52.3% hit rate, the price is at or under fair by the composite estimate.
Rennes to win at 1.89 is priced just above the fair line of 1.87 from two books, offering a small 0.9% edge. The 53.4% hit rate suggests slim but present value on this road match.
Athletic Bilbao to win at 2.20 is priced below the fair 2.24 from two books. At 98% of fair and a 44.7% hit rate, the price is at or under fair value.
Botafogo to win at 1.74 is priced below the fair 1.77 built from two sources. At 98% of fair and a 56.6% hit rate, the price sits at or under fair value.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
Two independent clusters, 28.1% hit rate, pays 100% of fair value with slight positive EV - solid combination of decent hit probability and fair pricing.
