Last 30 days · 269 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 139–122
Every pick published, placed or not.15 picks · 9 hit · CLV +1.4 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
Over 8.5 runs at -115 shows 47.4% hit rate and sits 2% above the two-book fair of 2.11, making it the only pick with positive EV. Caesars pays 102 cents per fair dollar, a rare premium to consensus on this total.
Toronto at -118 prices to 53.4% per four-book consensus but sits 1.2% below fair value at 1.87 decimal. The book pays 99 cents per fair dollar, a razor-thin miss on what four sources agree is the true line.
Tampa Bay at -189 carries a 63.2% win probability but is 3.4% below the four-book fair of 1.58. At 97% of fair value, the heavy favorite is underpriced relative to consensus.
Cincinnati at +180 is priced 2.9% below fair value of 2.88 from four books, implying a 34.7% hit rate. The book pays 97 cents per fair dollar across a thin consensus on an underdog matchup.
Washington at +170 carries a 36.5% implied win probability versus a fair line of 2.74 built from four books. At 99% of fair value, the price is essentially at consensus despite a 1.4% EV shortfall.
Baltimore at +120 is priced to 44% against a 2.27 fair line from four sources, running 3.3% below true value. The book pays 97 cents per fair dollar on this underdog play.
Houston at -141 implies 56.7% to win but sits 3.1% under the fair line of 1.77 built by four books. At 97% of fair, Caesars' price is below consensus despite the favorite status.
Miami at +115 implies 44.8% to win versus a 2.23 fair line from four books, falling 3.6% short of true value. The book pays 96 cents per fair dollar on this underdog selection.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
Two separate clusters covering unrelated games, 25.3% hit rate, pays 101% of fair value with the highest EV among candidates, offering fair odds relative to true probability.
