The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
Chicago White SoxatCleveland GuardiansMLB5:01 PM· 1 pick
BetMGM-2.9%MLBHitLate
-1351.74
✓Cleveland Guardians Moneyline
Cleveland Guardians won its last game 9-5Gavin Williams: ERA 3.76 vs xFIP 2.85, unlucky so far
Fair from 3
-127
Hit
55.8%
Pays of Fair
97%
Closed
-135
CLV
+0.0 pts
Cleveland's moneyline at -135 sits slightly under the 1.79 fair built from three books, paying out at 97 percent of fair value. The 55.8 percent hit rate carries a modest negative EV of 2.9 percent. Gavin Williams takes the mound with a 3.76 ERA but a 2.85 xFIP and 25.1 percent K-BB rate, suggesting underlying performance better than his results indicate.
PK-RFCNHPublished 12d ago
Parlays
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
