Last 30 days · 282 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 146–127
Every pick published, placed or not.15 picks · 8 hit · CLV +0.6 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
Utah's away moneyline prices 3.1% below fair on a 53% hit rate from three books at 97% of fair value. Quotes are 30 minutes or older.
Buffalo at home prices at 3.6% below fair value with a 48.7% hit rate across three books. The book pays 96% of fair. Our record on NHL home moneylines in the last 60 days stands at 22-10 (69%).
Minnesota's +1.5 spread at Tampa prices 2.7% under fair with a 64.9% hit rate from three books at 97% of fair. Minnesota covered 1.5 in its last outing.
Tampa Bay at home prices at 3% below fair with 57.7% implied hit rate across three books paying 97% of fair value. Our record on NHL home moneylines over 60 days is 22-10 (69%).
Nashville's +1.5 spread at Montreal prices 2.4% below fair with a 60.3% hit rate on 98% of fair value from three books. Nashville covered 1.5 in its last game.
Chicago's away moneyline prices at 4.7% below fair on a 37.4% hit rate across three books paying 95% of fair. Quotes are 30 minutes or older.
Toronto at Vegas sits at 5.4% below fair across three books that price the implied hit rate at 39.1%. DraftKings offers 95% of fair value. Quotes are 30 minutes or older.
Toronto's +1.5 spread prices at 2.3% under fair with a 61.5% hit rate built by three books at 98% of fair value. Toronto covered 1.5 in its last outing.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
Three independent clusters reduce correlated risk, with a 3.9% EV and payout at 104% of fair value. Hit rate of 26.9% reflects the added variance of a three leg build, balanced by the strongest EV edge among the candidates.
Two clusters keep this parlay closer to independent opinions, with a 42.5% hit rate, the highest offered, alongside a 3.3% EV and payout at 103% of fair price, giving a steadier risk profile.
