Last 30 days · 269 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 139–122
Every pick published, placed or not.11 picks · 6 hit · CLV +1.9 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
Twins moneyline at 1.68 against fair 1.74 is priced 3.7% under fair from three books. The 57.3% hit rate and books in agreement got this on the slate, though the book pays only 96% of fair.
Phillies moneyline at 2.20 is priced 4.6% below fair 2.31 across three books. The 43.4% hit rate and agreement among three sportsbooks placed it on the slate, though the book pays only 95% of fair.
Pirates moneyline offers minimal edge at 1.88 against fair 1.87, built from two books. The 53.4% hit rate and recent form - pirates won 6 of last 8 while the Cardinals won 3 of 8 - led to selection. This represents essentially fair pricing at 100% of fair value.
Rays moneyline at 2.35 against a fair line of 2.43 built from three books is priced 3% below fair value. The 41.2% hit rate combined with books in agreement on the line got this on the slate, though the book pays only 97% of fair.
White Sox moneyline at 1.89 against fair 1.95 is priced 3.2% under fair from three books. The 51.2% hit rate is supported by recent form - White Sox won 5 of last 8 while the Royals won none - but the book pays only 97% of fair.
Over 7.5 runs at 1.91 against fair 1.93 is priced 0.8% below fair from two books. The 51.9% hit rate leans on recent data - Texas went over 7.5 in 6 of last 8, and both teams' last games cleared that total - with pricing nearly at fair at 99%.
Diamondbacks moneyline at 1.65 against fair 1.71 is priced 3.5% below fair from three books. The 58.5% hit rate and recent advantage - Diamondbacks won 4 of last 8 versus Rockies 2 of 8 - drove selection, though the book pays only 96% of fair.
Athletics moneyline at 2.16 against fair 2.18 is priced 1.1% under fair from three books. The 45.8% hit rate placed it on the slate despite minimal deviation, with the book paying 99% of fair.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
Two clusters back these legs, meaning independent opinions rather than one repeated bet. Hit rate of 32.8% with positive EV of 3.4% and payout at 103% of fair value offers a fair edge without overreaching on price.
