Last 30 days · 269 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 139–122
Every pick published, placed or not.11 picks · 8 hit · CLV +0.0 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
Pirates moneyline at -179 sits against fair -160 built from three books, implying 62.6 percent hit rate and paying 98 percent of fair. Paul Skenes carries a 20.9 percent K-BB ratio across 665 batters faced, and our 60-day record on home moneylines reads 109-82.
Pirates -1.5 spread prices at +125 against fair +128 from three books, implying 43.8 percent hit probability and 98 percent fair value payout. Paul Skenes maintains a 20.9 percent strikeout-to-walk rate and the Pirates won and covered -1.5 in their last game 7-4.
Red Sox moneyline at +107 sits at or under fair value from three books, which built a line of +114 with 46.8 percent implied hit rate. The Red Sox won their last game 4-3, leading this selection to the slate.
Astros moneyline at +101 trades at or under fair from three books implying 47.4 percent probability and paying 95 percent of fair. The Astros won their last game 6-2 and our 60-day home record reads 109-82.
Over 8 runs at -115 sits at or under fair from two books with 51.5 percent hit rate and 96 percent fair payout. The Braves have covered this side seven straight games while the market currently implies 53 percent.
Over 7.5 runs trades at -110 against a fair -101 across three books with 50.2 percent implied probability. The Padres have covered this line eight straight games while both teams average 11.2 runs combined over the last 14 days. Fanatics pays 96 percent of fair.
Padres moneyline at -192 compares to a fair -160 from three books with 64.2 percent hit rate and 98 percent fair payout. Nick Pivetta's 25.0 percent K-BB ratio in limited 100-batter sample supports the price, and our 60-day home record stands 109-82.
Caesars prices Yankees to win at -125 while three books set a fair line of -110, implying 54.8 percent hit rate. The book pays 99 percent of fair value. Gerrit Cole's 20.0 percent strikeout-to-walk ratio (475 batters faced) anchors the arm, but quotes are older than 30 minutes.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
No parlays in this view.
