Last 30 days · 269 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 139–122
Every pick published, placed or not.12 picks · 5 hit · CLV +1.4 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
Salzburg to win at 2.15 is priced at 98 percent of fair value as built from two books at 2.2. The 45.6 percent hit rate and negative 2.1 percent expected value indicate the book's price sits at fair. The line has moved 3.4 points in our direction since the opening.
Real Betis to win prices at 1.69 decimal against a 1.72 fair line built from two book sources, implying a 58.1 percent hit rate. The book pays 98 percent of fair value. Both quotes carry a caution: all are over 30 minutes old, and Betis has underperformed its expected output by 0.84 points per match across its last ten games.
Viktoria Plzeň to win at 2.5 is priced at 97 percent of fair value as built from two books at 2.56. The 39 percent hit rate and negative 2.5 percent expected value indicate the book's price sits at fair. The line has moved 3.9 points in our direction since the opening.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
Two independent clusters combine for a 3.7% EV edge, paying 104% of fair value with a 28.5% hit rate, the strongest balance of return and probability among the candidates.
Spans two separate clusters with a 30.6% hit rate and pays 101% of fair value, offering a modest but positive 0.9% EV edge from uncorrelated legs.
