The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
Context · MediumContext: Garrett Mitchell neck injury uncertain for Thursday; medical tests determine availability. Rain risk 71% peak chance at PNC Park. FOX Sports
Milwaukee Brewers moneyline at -137 sits modestly under fair across two books. The Brewers won 7 of their last 8 games while the Pirates won only 4 of 8, and Milwaukee won its last game 5-4.
PK-W9T5PPublished 36d ago
Los Angeles DodgersatCincinnati RedsMLB9:41 AM· 1 pick
Caesars-3.6%MLBMissedMid
+1442.44
✕Cincinnati Reds to win
Fair from 2
+153
Hit
39.5%
Pays of Fair
96%
Closed
+139
CLV
+0.9 pts
Cincinnati Reds moneyline at +144 is priced under fair value of +153 across two books. Brady Singer shows an ERA of 5.38 against an xFIP of 4.53, indicating some run-giving misfortune. The Reds won their last game 6-2.
PK-W7WHQPublished 36d ago
AthleticsatTampa Bay RaysMLB10:10 AM· 1 pick
DraftKings-4.4%MLBMissedMid
+1002.00
✕Athletics +1.5
Fair from 3
+109
Hit
47.8%
Pays of Fair
96%
Closed
-101
CLV
+0.3 pts
Athletics at +1.5 at even money sits under fair value of -109 across three books. Jeffrey Springs shows an ERA of 5.93 against an xFIP of 4.97, suggesting recent run misfortune. Oakland covered 1.5 in its last game.
PK-ZJFHQPublished 36d ago
San Diego PadresatColorado RockiesMLB12:10 PM· 2 picks
Caesars-2.8%MLBPushMid
+1002.00
–Over 11 runs
Both teams' last games went over 11Park runs index 125 (100 = neutral)
Fair from 2
+106
Hit
48.6%
Pays of Fair
97%
Closed
+100
CLV
+0.0 pts
Over 11 runs at even money is priced just under fair of -106 across two books. Both teams' last games exceeded 11 runs, and both lineups combined for 10.4 runs per game over 14 days. Coors Field runs at a 125 index, well above neutral.
PK-R9N5VPublished 36d ago
FanDuel-1.5%MLBHitMid
-1591.63
✓San Diego Padres to win
Fair from 3
-154
Hit
60.4%
Pays of Fair
99%
Closed
-204
CLV
+5.8 pts
San Diego Padres moneyline at -159 prices at fair value of -159 across three books with a 60.4% hit rate. The Padres won 7 of their last 8 games and took their last matchup 9-3, while Colorado has won just 1 of its last 8.
PK-754YKPublished 36d ago
Philadelphia PhilliesatNew York MetsMLB4:16 PM· 1 pick
Caesars-1.4%MLBHitMid
+1212.21
✓Philadelphia Phillies to win
Fair from 3
+124
Hit
44.6%
Pays of Fair
99%
Closed
+112
CLV
+1.9 pts
Philadelphia Phillies moneyline at -121 prices slightly under fair value of -123 across three books. Aaron Nola shows an ERA of 4.69 against an xFIP of 3.90, suggesting some bad luck in run support. The Phillies won their last game 3-0.
PK-BN6ZTPublished 36d ago
Detroit TigersatChicago White SoxMLB4:41 PM· 1 pick
BetMGM-4.8%MLBMissedMid
-1051.95
✕Over 8.5 runs
Fair from 2
+105
Hit
48.8%
Pays of Fair
95%
Closed
-110
CLV
+1.1 pts
Over 8.5 runs at -105 prices modestly under fair value of -105 across two books. Detroit went over 8.5 in 6 of its last 8 games, though its most recent game stayed under.
Minnesota TwinsatLos Angeles AngelsMLB6:39 PM· 1 pick
DraftKings-2.1%MLBMissedMid
-1231.81
✕Minnesota Twins to win
Fair from 2
-118
Hit
54.1%
Pays of Fair
98%
Closed
-105
CLV
-4.0 pts
Context · HighContext: Taj Bradley (Twins pitcher) out with pectoral inflammation per ESPN. ESPN
Minnesota Twins moneyline at -123 is priced at fair value according to two books. The Twins won their last game 5-4 and carry a 54.1% implied hit rate at this price.
PK-9EMVBPublished 36d ago
Parlays
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
BetMGM+0.9%2 legs · 2 clustersMissed
+2303.30
✓Real Betis to win-145Getafe at Real BetisLa Liga - Spain · 10:00 AM
✕Over 8.5 runs-105Detroit Tigers at Chicago White SoxMLB · 4:41 PM
Fair
+227
Hit
30.6%
Pays of Fair
101%
Stake
$5.00
Spans two separate clusters with a 30.6% hit rate and pays 101% of fair value, offering a modest but positive 0.9% EV edge from uncorrelated legs.
