Last 30 days · 269 published · CLV +0.6 pts · 139–122
Every pick published, placed or not.12 picks · 5 hit · CLV +1.4 pts
The best of today's priced board, by game in kickoff order: a fair built from two or more books (or a calibrated model), a hit rate between 30% and 70%, a price no longer than +230, at one of your books - ordered by a score that weighs the EV, how many books agree, the trend and our own record on that market. Not every pick is an edge; the EV on each card says which are. Up to 8 a sport, 2 a game, 15 a day; later windows only add. The paragraph is written from those numbers and nothing else.
Buffalo's pass EPA advantage of +0.29 per dropback, built on strong recent offensive efficiency and defense, aligns with three books setting fair value at 1.51. DraftKings prices the Bills at 1.49 with a 66 percent hit rate, slightly below fair at 98 percent of what the market implies.
Built only from the picks above: two or three legs, one per game, priced at one book, a combined hit rate of at least 20% and positive EV - at most two a day, and none on a flat day. No CLV on a parlay: a combination has no published closing price.
No parlays in this view.
